I Am Not Buying Into The Tampa Bay Rays This Year
Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21
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Forgive me if I don’t follow a lot of other people’s opinion on the Tampa Bay Rays. I outlined in a recent article on over/under win totals for the year that the Rays are 1 of 2 best bets to be under their 82.5 wins for the year.
Okay so last year I did also call for their demise – and they rallied late in the year for a 80 – 82 record, however I don’t even think this club is as good as the roster that competed the 2015 season – meanwhile all the other clubs have maintained or added good players to their depth charts.
Not exactly loading the fanbase with can’t miss talent the Rays are significantly weaker in 2016 than 2015 in my view.
Their Bullpen is worse…The loss off Starter Karns may actually hurt the club.
A lot of folks are claiming that the Rays have outstanding pitching. I temper those statements by pointing out massive health concerns.
Matt Moore is recovering from TJ himself – and has not had much success since his nice rookie season.
Drew Smyly has put up a stellar ERA for the club in 19 Game Starts at 2.54 – with a 0.997 WHIP – however he only logged 66.2 Innings Pitched over 12 Game Starts last season.
Smyly is a decent chucker for sure – but lets not give him a great classification here.
Jake Odorizzi is a nice young thrower as well. He does project to a #2 or #3 based on his efforts in his time with Tampa.
The loss of Jake McGee, added with the injury to Brad Boxberger absolutely crippled the Rays Relief Core, which should be doling out major innings with the Starters like Moore and Smyly already in the rotation.
Then there is the offense. It is easily the worst lineup in the AL East – and is going to challenge for worst in the league. Last year the club actually fared decently in registering the 7th best average (.252) in the AL, but were 9th in OBP (.315) and 10 in SLG (.406). They also were in the bottom 3rd for Strikeouts and Walks.
The most troubling aspect was the club ranked 14th in total runs scored.
Granted the pitching picked up a lot of the slack being 4th in team ERA and Strikeouts. Yet this is where I can forecast trouble. Jake McGee, Nate Karns and Brad Boxberger (who will be out until mid May) are missing from last year’s opening day roster. Boxberger helped lead the Relief Core to an AL leading 61 Saves last season.
Karns will also be missed, where he put up a respectable 3.67 ERA and WHIP of 1..279 in his 147 Frames last campaign – spanning 26 Game Starts.
The club is not expected to break Spring Training with phennom Blake Snell either. They will keep him down until Mid-June to bypass the “super 2” status this season. If there is any year the club should have one of their young superstars up to start the season it is now. But they won’t do it.
The Rays lineup doesn’t scare anyone. Evan Longoria is just above average for his position. Corey Dickerson may be the key to the club scoring early, yet I believe he will struggle adapting to a new league – and also breaking the Coors Field jinx that seems to plague so many ex-Rockies before him.
Kevin Keirmaier may be a Gold Glover in CF but that doesn’t translate into offensive production. Don’t hold your breath waiting for Steven Souza JR.emerging as a great player either.
Steve Pearce was a decent pickup for a Utility guy – but he will not light the league on fire.
At 1B there is perennial underachiever Logan Morrison and light hitting James Loney manning the post there.
Shortstop includes the likes of Tm Beckham and Brad Miller. Would you believe the Rays employ 3 former Mariners that couldn’t cut the mustard in Morrison, Miller and Nick Franklin.
The Catching production is a joke, although maybe Hank Conger can at least be adequate.
The biggest thing to hold your hat on is the unproven young backups seem to have power. OF Mikie Mahtook (9 HRs and 19 RBI in 105 AB), Curt Casali (10 HRs and 18 RBI in 101 AB) and Brandon Guyer (31 Extra Base Hits in 332 AB), but they are not even starting at least to begin the year.
Losing the steady bats of Jaso and Cabrera may also sting a little bit as both carried OPS’s of .839 and .744 respectively. Cabrera also featured a nice .916 OPS in the second half of the year after a slow start.
Even a guy like J.P. Arencibia cracked 7 HRs and added 17 RBI in just 71 AB for the Rays last year.
You have to like the way the Rays bench picked up the starters on offense. That kind of result is hard to duplicate the next year – espeially with 2nd year players facing sophomore campaigns.
Tampa’s pitching were also 11th in total Homers yielded as a pitching staff last season. This doesn’t bode well against the Jays, O’s, Yankees and Red Sox who can all hurt you with the longball.
Again, losing 3 quality arms from that vantage point to start the year will add to the club’s misery
After pointing all of this out, a lot of how I am pegging the Rays for 74 – 76 wins rests largely on the Division they play in.
Boston, Toronto, New York and Baltimore all have better offenses and Bullpens than the Rays. Other than the Orioles, the Jays, Red Sox and Yankees also have decent Starting Pitching to add to the fold.
Tampa’s real advantage of Starting Pitching and the Relief Core nailing down victories is not as strong as they were in 2015 – and that will be the teams undoing
I predict that the Rays will not reach the 80 win barrier for the 1st time since 2007. Does this mean the future is not bright for this club…Actually no..
This team looks decent in years to come. Blake Snell will arrive, some of the young players should get better and players like Loney, Pearce and Morrison all come of the payroll to create $20 MIL in the budget for next year.
There is 0nly $27 MIL on the clubs cash for contracts thus far in 2017. If Cobb has a successful return to the rotation, and Smyly/Moore prove healthy – you should have a nice trade chip with a Odorizzi to help address your long term offensive needs.
*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of bbba.work and their other members***
A big thanks goes out to our featured writer Hunter Stokes for preparing today’s post.
Posted on March 19, 2016, in MLB Reports and tagged AL East, alex cobb, asdrubal cabrera, baltimore orioles, Blake Snell, boston red sox, brad boxberger, brad miller, Brandon Guyer, chris archer, Corey Dickerson, curt casali, danny farquhar, desmond jennings, Drew Smyly, evan longoria, grady sizemore, J.P. Arencibia, jake mcgee, jake odorizzi, john jaso, Kevin Keirmaier, logan forsythe, logan morrison, Mike Mahtook, Nate Karns, new york yankees, Ryan Webb, seattle mariners, steve pearce, Steven Souza JR., tampa bay rays, tim beckham, Toronto Blue Jays. Bookmark the permalink. 3 Comments.