Regular Season Win Over/Under Totals Updated For MLB 2016 Wagering + Best Bets

I think the Mets have a chance to win in the mid 90’s for wins, which is way less than the 89.5 over/under total they are listed for. They will beat up on the Braves, Phillies and I also believe they will truck the Marlins too. I like the Nationals a few wins behind them.  New York should also have a good look at returning to the World Series this fall with that pitching staff.

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21

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I am continuing the theme of wagering on the Baltimore Orioles.  They were my favorite American League club growing up.  Now I favor no one but the clubs I can win money on.  Perhaps this season I will rekindle my fondness again for the Birds.

This set of odds represents the best set of over/under win total odds I have seen for any establishment.

These are better than PECOTA, FanGraphs and most Las Vegas odds.

The best bet on the board has to be the KC Royals over 84.5   At least these guys give them a projected winning season, but how can KC be a +1200 World Series favorite, to the Indians +2200 mark, meanwhile the Indians listed as an over/under of 84.5.

I am not even questioning the ‘Tribe’s” win total here.  This is a nice reflection of what they should have in their victory pile for the upcoming campaign.

Out of a lot of things that don’t make sense, I point this out.

Should win between 82 – 85 games in my view – and is one the best odds on the board for this wagering.

I also have the Tigers as a favorite pick, although injuries for an aging squad could definitely curtail their season really fast.

Still love the Pirates and Cardinals to go over the 86.5 wins put up here, but at least this 3 or 4 more victories posted out higher than the previously aforementioned entities.

The Giants and Dodgers both at 89.5 wins is right.  LA is quickly coming up to San Fran with injury concerns to Matt Cain, Johnny Cueto, Denard Span and Jeff Samardzija having a rough spring to date.

Out of all clubs, there is two glaring totals that I believe are worthy of betting some cabbage on.  The Rays under 82.5 wins and the Reds under 70.5.

I am flabbergasted on where the pundits think that Tampa Bay is going to get their offense from, and their Bullpen is not as good as previous seasons.

Tampa Bay is without Alex Cobb till midway through the year recovering from Tommy John Surgery, will not call up phenom Blake Snell until at least June (even if they bring him up to the show at all), with Drew Smyly and Matt Moore both coming off seasons where they only managed just over 60 IP a piece.

Yes the Rays have Chris Archer. who is one of a dozen or so aces in the league, coupled with a competent young chucker in Jake Odorizzi, but stop toting this club with having dominant pitching.

This squad also doesn’t have any ALL – Star caliber position players, and will have a tough time keeping up with the offenses of the Jays, Orioles, Red Sox and even the Yankees. I would gladly take all other 4 teams shut down late inning relief over Tampa Bay’s as well.

 

I peg the Rays for about a 76 win team.

Love the Orioles for about 83 – 84 wins.

Picked the Tigers for about 85 wins, which is about 4 more than the number listed.

I think the Pirates and Cards will reach 90 wins each, and surpass the 86.5 win barrier.  Both of these clubs have made the playoffs for 3 straight years – registering more wins than what they are at for this mark.

Cincinnati should have the worst record in the league in my view, I will slot them in for over 100 Losses in 2016.  Almost 10 more than the over/under here.

Look for them to trade Jay Bruce, Zack Cozart, any reliever not nailed down. and lose even more games after the ALL – Star Game. To add insult to this, young Starter Michael Lorenzen may be staring down Tommy John Surgery.

I believe the Nationals and Mets will also top the 90 win plateau quite easily – and be closer to the mid 90’s level by years end.

Let me get this straight? KC wins 95 games last season, after back to back years over the 84.5 mark in 2013 and 2014 as well, and are going to have a 12 game regression this season. Wrong. I have won 3 straight years of betting them over for regular season wins – and will bet them again. (i did receive a better odd already from Vegas having them lower on the win pole, but they are one of the best wagers on this list.

OVER/UNDER Wins – Courtesy of www.bet365.com

The defending World Series Champs should be good for 87 – 89 victories.

MLB Club                               Over                      Under____

Chicago Cubs                             93.5  (-135)             93.5 (+105)

LA Dodgers                                89.5  (-130)            89.5  (+100)

NY Mets                                  89.5  (-115)           88.5  (-115)

SF Giants                                    89.5  (-105)            89.5   (-125)

Washington Nationals     88.5  (-140)           88.5  (+110)

Houston Astros                         88.5   (+105)           88.5  (-135)

Boston Red Sox                         87.5   (-125)             87.5  (-105)

Toronto Blue Jays                    87.5   (-115)               87.5  (-115)

St. Louis Cardinals             86.5  (-105)             86.5  (-125)

Pittsburgh Pirates              86.5  (+105)           86.5  (-135)

Cleveland Indians                    85.5  (-130)              85.5  (+100)

NY Yankees                               85.5  (+100)             85.5  (-130)

KC Royals                             84.5  (-115)            84.5  (-115)

Seattle Mariners                        83.5  (-110)             83.5  (-120)

Texas Rangers                           83.5  (-105)             83.5  (-125)

TB Rays                                    82.5  (-105)             82.5  (-125)

Arizona D’Backs                        82.5  (-125)             82.5  (-105)

Detroit Tigers                       81.5  (-125)            81.5  (-105)

Chicago White Sox                    80.5  (-130)             80.5  (+100)

LA Angels                                    80.5  (-115)              80.5  (-115)

Miami Marlins                            79.5  (-135)              79.5  (+105)

Baltimore Orioles                78.5 (-115)            78.5  (-115)

Minnesota Twins                        78.5  (-125)              78.5  (-105)

Oakland A’s                                  75.5  (-120)              75.5  (-110)

SD Padres                                     73.5  (-115)                73.5  (-115)

Colorado Rockies                        71.5  (-105)                71.5  (-125)

Milwaukee Brewers                    70.5  (-105)               70.5  (-125)

Cincinnati Reds                        70.5  (+100)            70.5  (-130)

Atlanta Braves                              66.5 (-115)                66.5  (-115)

Philadelphia Phillies                   64.5  (-130)              64.5  (+100)

Joey Votto had an OPS of 1.000 in 2015 – and the club still lost 98 contests. Take away Todd Frazier, following the losses of Mike Leake and Johnny Cueto already last year, and the 2016 campaign looks to be a bad year to be a Reds fan.  I fully expect them to lose 100 games this season, and they are my #1 bet on the board for the under here.

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of bbba.work and their other members***

A big thanks goes out to our featured writer Hunter Stokes for preparing today’s post.

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