MLB Fantasy Daily (DFS) Picks For FanDuel – 5/19/16

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_Hunter21

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One of the biggest blunders made by many gamblers is betting against themselves.  We are going to simplify the process, so if you win, you can really win – none of this barely break even nonsense.

Our new Draft Strategy is now here.  Please read after the post.

Now here is what we are going to do for today’s MLB DFS FanDuel style.

We Will Give You – Daily

5 team stacking options ( We are going to draw most of our players from these 5 squads).

3 Pitching candidates (High level, midlevel and budget).

Tanaka Will Miss Over A Years Worth Of Work In 7 Season Contract From ‘TJS’ Avoidance

Pitching with a partially torn UCL in his pitching arm since July of 2014, the Yankees and Tanaka’s camp have avoided having Tommy John Surgery thus far, but how far can they go in avoiding the procedure? I also make the point that even if the Yankees ace somehow eludes the injury for the duration of his 7 year contract – that the fans are only seeing him at 85 – 90%. I thought the move was to have TJ Surgery in 2014, and upon returning from it, he would be able to turn it lose like an ace should.

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_Hunter21

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What is better:  5 Years and an average of 200 Innings Thrown, or 6 years of throwing 150 – 165 IP?

The diagnosis of Masahiro Tanaka‘s slightly torn elbow was first disclosed in July of 2014.  Had he gone for Tommy John Surgery there for  repair, he could be back at full strength right about now in time.

Instead of going ahead with a procedure (that is operating at about an 86% rate of full return for pitchers,) the Japanese born Tanaka has been nursing the injury since the start of the 2015 season.

Having signed a 7 year deal worth $155 MIL – that also included a $20 MIL posting fee, the Yankees were hoping to land an ace that could pivot their rotation from 2014 – 2020.

While it is amazing the man can even throw with this lingering issue, Tanaka authored a great WHIP of 0.994 and a respectable ERA of 3.51 in 24 Game Starts during 2015.  Here is the problem though, he missed 2 months of the season when his elbow flared up. 

MLB Power Rankings: Week 1 Results – April 2016

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Disclaimer:  We based these rankings on best strength to win the World Series.  Therefore some teams that have an easier division to play in, with the least path of resistance to the postseason overall may be ranked a lot higher than a club who is equally talented, yet may play in a juggernaut of a division.

Team – Rank (W – L Record) (Last week ranking in parenthesis)

(1) Chicago Cubs  (5 – 1)  (1):  The Cubs weathered the loss of their slugging OF Kyle Schwarber this week – by taking 5 of the 1st 6 games played, and all on the road.  After these 6 contests – the squad is outscoring their opponents 42 – 15.

Love the idea of setting the table with Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist 1-2-3 prior to the boppers coming after in Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant.

Having the 2015 NL ROY may help Rizzo win the NL MVP this season.  He had 10 RBI this week – including a 6 RBI effort.

Jake Arrieta is already 2 – 0, and this team shows no signs of slowing down.

(2)  KC Royals  (4 – 1) (2):  This club just knows how to win with the dominant Bullpen and clutch hitting.  They have only yielded 11 runs thus far, and this team has not even hit huge strides on offense yet.

The AL Central is better in 2016 there is no question, however KC will be ready to take them on.  There may not be a more filthy Late Inning Reliever right now than Wade Davis.  Edinson Volquez has picked up right where he left off in 2015 as well.

How Many Years Will It Take Of The AL Clubbing The NL In Interleague Before Things Change?

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With a modest 4 – 3 lead in the season series heading into today’s action. the National League is in foreign territory by leading the Interleague yearly contest.  However I remember the the NL taking a decent lead in the 2014 campaign – before the American League trounced the Senior Circuit the rest of the way – and edged them out by a few games for the entire year..

The Junior Circuit has won the last 12 years of play, and own a decisive .552 win percentage since 2004 (when the 1st 8 years were split 4 – 4 in the seasons, with the NL holding a 30 games wins lead) in that time frame.

I am a bigger fan of the American League game over the National League, yet I am torn because if these splits continue for more seasons, we will never have more Interleague ever. We may stay the same – or god forbid, eliminate Interleague altogether if expansion leads to 32 clubs (16 in each league) and negating an odd amount of teams per league, not necessarily needing to play it anymore.

Right now there are 20 games for each club against the other League. It boils down to just one division playing another division, and then in most cases, a natural geographical rivalry.

Determining how many games there ought to really be, I turn to the “Team Fatigue card” a lot of my fellow westerners have expressed in so much out this way over the years.

I am close enough to see both NL and AL parks play, but there are several cities that are without a league park of the other for hundreds of miles (like Seattle, Arizona, Colorado, Minneapolis), then KC and St. Louis to a lesser extent, but far away enough to classify a full road trip should you partake in a journey to see.

You can add Texas and Houston, with Tampa and Miami in that mix as well.

MLB Power Rankings: April 2016

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21

Follow The BBBA On Twitter Follow @baseballblogs

Disclaimer:  We based these rankings on best strength to win the World Series.  Therefore some teams that have an easier division to play in, with the least path of resistance to the postseason overall may be ranked a lot higher than a club who is equally talented, yet may play in a juggernaut of a division.

Yesterday won’t change much for the rankings.  Although it kicked off interleague with the Royals beating the Mets 4 – 3, and starts the Junior Circuit looking to win the AL vs NL competition for a 13th straight year.

Pittsburgh also beat the Cardinals.  I have them both ending the year win 91 victories, but these squad’s really intrigue me.

There are a multitude of reasons why I have picked the Cubs as the #1 team.  I explain them in the writeup.

Each Monday, we will post a new set of power rankings and go over the week that was.

National League Rookie Of The Year Odds In MLB 2016 Action

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Corey Seager is not even in the lineup to open the season but he is the overwhelming favorite to the win the NL Rookie Of The Year Award in 2016 MLB Action.

Update:  I was wrong, Seager is was in the lineup for the opener.  Having said this, there is no value to bet on him at the odd given, even though he is the overwhelming favorite.

Like we said the American League odds list, there is never a real need to play a whole season to win this award.  That is unless you have to compete against a 2015’s winner in Kris Bryant, who was brought up in mid April last year.

Really this is Seager’s spot to lose.

I hate the odds for a guy who is injured to begin the campaign, nonetheless he would still be my pick for the Award.

Steven Matz has dubbed the 2nd favorite – along with Kenta Maeda.  Both of these guys broke camp with the big club, and could make 26 – 30 starts this year.

I love the odd better for Maeda, who is slotted higher in the rotation than Matz.  These odds are not glamorous to wager on either.

Perhaps the most intriguing guy on the list is Trevor Story.  He is the starting shortstop while Jose Reyes is still on the inactive list – awaiting a resolution (suspension) for his part in a domestic dispute in Hawaii over the winter.

Odds To Win The American League Rookie Of The Year

The American League has some young talent, however about only half of the guys on this list will even break camp with their parent big clubs,and others will be blocked for various reasons -including against each other on their own squads. There is really only one good bet and one bad for entire 15 guy list.

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1st off the Twins have the top 3 players listed for the category in Buxton, Ho-Park and Berrios.

All Minnesota youngsters could make the squad, although Buxton is posting just a .567 OPS  in Spring Training –  after only putting up a .576 OPS in his 129 AB for 2015. He will be given the starting job to either make it or not, after the trade of Aaron Hicks.  Don’t like the favorite status for most of these categories, this will ring true one more time.

Ho-Park has looked solid at the dish so far with a 3 Slash of .283/.306/.543 – with 3 HRs and 13 RBI in his 46 AB, and at 29 years of age – coming over from the KBO, he has years of experience next to his classmates.

Jose Abreu and Ichiro Suzuki both came over as later in life rookies to the Junior Circuit and took the honors  Ho-Park was a beast in Korea – blasting over 50+ HRs in each of the last 2 years there for his club team Nexen.

While you have to temper expectations coming overseas to North America from there, what I love is that the guy improved his numbers in each of the last 5 years.  This bodes well for him in Minny.

With a 4 year deal in his back pocket, Park will and should remain on the big roster based on his early success.

I am not sure he will win the Award, and I am not placing any cabbage on him too, but at least he won’t be subjected to service time restrictions like other rookies.

Baseball’s Biggest “Get Out Of Jail” Financial Contracts Over The Last Few Years

Several players have either retired for various reasons, or have served suspensions in which their organization has received an unexpected benefit of salary relief for it in recent years. This will need to be addressed in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement to be forthcoming after this next season.

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21

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The new CBA forthcoming should be addressing on how player contracts work towards team salaries when it is due for suspension or retirement.  Last week’s sudden packing in the cleats from Adam LaRoche will actually benefit the White Sox with $13 MIL in salary relief.

It is not the 1st time a guy has retired during a contract, and it is the latest where a team may be drawing a sigh of relief.

It wasn’t even the 1st instance of the winter.  Earlier this off year, Mets OF Michael Cuddyer retired with one year of service left on his deal.  This move led the Mets to have a few extra dollars in their seat cushion to re-ink Yoenis Cespedes to a 1 Year $27.5 MIL deal

Cuddyer was still expensive for New York with a 1sr RD Draft pick forfeit, but at least he only cost the club $8.5 MIL on 1 season, as opposed to an additional $12.5 MIL this upcoming campaign.

If the Mets are still under contract with this guy it makes re-signing Cespedes a tougher deal.  Not only cash wise, but it was also clogging up another spot on the Roster if  New York had to keep the under-performing former Rockies and Twins player.

Instead, all of the fans wishes were granted when Cespedes came back to Flushing Meadows, and you can add the fact they also re-upped with Bartolo Colon for another year as yet another extension of the Cuddyer decision.

Odds To Win The 2016 AL MVP In The MLB: Best And Worst Bets

Miguel Cabrera won this award back in 2012 and 2013 – and is fully healthy this upcoming campaign, on a club that is much improved and will be in contention for a playoff spot all year. His +700 odd is a great value bet.  We are picking the man to win the American League MVP this year.  Mike Trout will likely finish 2nd again, and that is based solely on his team probably not vying for a playoff position this year in my view.  Trout should still win the AP Player of the Year and Sporting News player of the year as well..

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21

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There is no doubt in the world that Mike Trout is the best overall player in the American League, and he is still the best player in the Majors (at least for now – until Bryce Harper has a better 2016 than him again in 2015), but his team is going to make it tough for him to win the MVP over the next few years.

The 2014 winner, and 3 time runner-up in 2012, 2013 and 2015 has to be wondering what his franchise is doing wasting his talent – by surrounding a mediocre supporting cast?

Having said this, the +175 odd is still about where it should be.  If the Angels are in the race down the stretch, and he has better number than the field, Trout will take his 2nd trophy this season.

Honestly the odd that surprised me the most was the Manny Machado odd at +500.  I am not questioning his talent, or the fact he should be a top 5 player for years in the AL;  I am questioning the website for having the O’s ranked 14th out of 15 AL Clubs!

Odds To Win The 2016 NL MVP In The MLB: Best And Worst Bets

Yasiel Puig looked like he could be an all world player when he first started his career, however his lackluster attitude over the last few years has people wondering whether or not he will ever make good on his talent.  His OPS has gone from .925 to .863 to .758 in the last 3 years respectively.  At his optimum output in 2013, that would at least put him consideration for votes toward the award. 

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21

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Much like the ‘Senior Circuit’ itself, the contenders for the 2016 NL MVP is very top heavy.  Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Paul Goldschmidt and Giancarlo Stanton are the top 4 favorites to win the Award.

Harper at +200 is not a foregone conclusion, and as just 2/1 odds, the number is not great to wager.  I do think the man will win 5 of the next 10 MVP Awards, so I am not placing that mark in the bad value either.

Giancarlo Stanton would have a great chance to win the honor if he could stay healthy – with the Marlins being over .500 for the first time since 2008.  It is possible the big slugger could bash out 10 more Home Runs to the next day.

Andrew McCutchen is a perennial contender who should also be in the mix this season.  If the Pirates win 90 games again, which I project them to, then Cutch should have another top 5 finish.

Paul Goldschmidt at +550, with a chance for the D’Backs to be in the fight all year could finally be the defining moment for the guy who has finished 2nd in the voting for the last 2 years he has played a full year.