2016 MLB Preseason Power Rankings

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21

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With just 5 weeks to the regular season – and all of the important Free Agents finally being locked up with Ian Desmond signing with the Rangers, it is time to see where all 30 MLB clubs stack up.

We are going to be running weekly power rankings once the year starts on Apr.3, 2016.

The way I compile the Power Rankings is best on confidence to win the World Series.  Some clubs may be more talented (or playing better) than a squad they are behind in the rankings,  but the Division (and strength of opponents) plays a massive factor.

It is the reason why teams like the Royals or Astros will be selected above a team like the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Pittsburgh Pirates might win 90 games (which may only see one AL club join them), but because they have to contend with the Cards and Cubs in the NL Central, it will be tough for them to receive a great ranking (at least until games are played).

Odds To Win The 2016 MLB World Series

The Cardinals continued their great play in the MLB since the turn of the millennium – with an MLB best 100 wins in 2015. The organization has transitioned to the next core of a young nucleus, while still holding on to a couple of capable veterans. Considering they have plenty of depth, and lots of payroll flexibility coming forth, the franchise could orchestrate a blockbuster trade soon. While I would favor Chicago over them slightly for the NL Central, the RedBirds, Mets, Dodgers Tigers and Mariners have the best value, while the Angels, Giants, Padres, Red Sox and D’Backs have the worst on the board this week.

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I was all set to pounce on my 1st American League bet for the Fall Classic in 2016 earlier this week – when the O’s were at +5000, and presumably bringing both Dexter Fowler and Yovani Gallardo into the stable. 

With Fowler opting back to Chicago, the odd also dropped to +4500 in the meantime (also following the Gallardo wait time for the physical fiasco), and the value is no longer there. 

Baltimore is a low 80 wins team in my view, and will not have enough for the postseason.  Fowler would have added a few W’s for sure.

Of course with the chaos that has ensued,  the Cubs have gone from +700 to +650 prohibitive best odd.  There is no doubt in my mind they should be the consensus favorite. 

One of these years the #1 seed will capitalize and win.  I am still not plunking down cabbage at that clip though.

If I were to do my year end picks right now, I would still have Chicago ending their World Series 108 seasons drought – but I can’t place them as twice the favorite as the St. Louis Cardinals.

Still not sold on the Cubs Bullpen either, and I think Jon Lester can be had in the postseason.  The Mets also line up favorably versus Chicago based on pitching matchups.  New York has the better odds to wager with.

I am currently writing a faceoff piece between the Cubbies and Cards that I will post over the weekend.  The difference is not a whopping 8 or 10 games like FanGraphs and PECOTA say.  St. Louis should still be in the mid 90’s for victories by years end.

Orioles Setting A Dangerous Precedent With Physicals (Circa Gallardo): Fowler Leaves To The Cubs

Dexter Fowler re-signed with the Cubs for a minimum 1 year deal of $15 MIL in 2016 (with a mutual option for 2017) if he or Chicago don’t want to opt out after the upcoming season. Fowler had been said to have a 3 YR/$33 MIL in place with the Orioles before this happened. Maybe Fowler didn’t act 100% in good faith with Baltimore – however the O’s don’t exactly have a great track record with treating players in regards to physicals anyway.

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21

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Wow, didn’t see that coming did you Orioles brass?  Dexter Fowler leaves his deal with you guys and re-signs with his old team in Chicago.

I have to wonder if the way things went down with Yovani Gallardo didn’t weigh on Dexter Fowler’s mind.  The track record for Free Agent’s having deals going south is about a 50/50 proposition with the O’s.

In one way I am disappointed that Baltimore didn’t land Fowler, because I think that deal would have definitely narrowed the gap in the AL East.

The ‘PECOTA’ System For MLB Team Win Projections Should Be Thrown Into The ‘Woodchipper’ Fargo Style!

I wish the “PECOTA” system allowed for wagers based on their totals like Atlantis Casino did last week. Plenty of cabbage would be flung around on those totals.

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21

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This winter has brought my attention to the gambling world more often than I ever would have guessed.  I already spent an impromptu weekend in Carson City after throwing down some serious cabbage at Atlantis Casino based on their over/unders last week.

I have been fortunate to nail down two straight years in which I have turned a $1000 profit on MLB futures.  For those people who have been following our Gambling 101 series of bets, this is one of the best streaks I have been on all – time, and maybe it will end with me ‘letting it ride’ this year, but I am also confident it won’t.

I only wish that PECOTA’s win totals (BY BP) would come with the ability to win moolah just like Atlantis offered.

Oh, where to begin.  LOL.

Don’t Cry For Players That Were Given The Qualifying Offer: And Are Not Being Signed

The Players of the MLBPA will have their chance to collectively bargain the rule of Qualifying Offer after the current CBA ends at the end of this year. Despite hearing a ton of groaning on radio airwaves from MLB hosts, the problem is just not as dire as they project. I may say they are trying to shock their audience for 24/7/365 programming. I argue the point that the ‘QO’ is not that bad.  The Draft Picks assigned for the players should not dissuade teams from singing them, as the percentage of picks 11 – 30 of the 1st Round do not have a huge conversion rate in the Majors that would trump these players current production anyway.

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21

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I will spare a ton of rhetoric and cut right to the chase.  3 out of the 20 players are still without a deal that were linked to the Qualifying Offer of $15.8 MIL in November.  This not egregious in any way in my view.

Dexter Fowler, Yovani Gallardo and Ian Desmond all could have taken the deal, played one more year and then hit the open market again.  Heck, they still can, but probably are not going to get in the vicinity of that cash for a one year deal with a Draft Pick nailed to it.

If anyone is to blame it is their agents.  This is simply the price of doing business.

Desmond for sure has no one to blame when the Nats hit him with a 7 year deal worth $107 MIL prior to 2014. Don’t you think he would love a Mulligan on that one?

Forget Prospects When Your Window Is Open To Win With Good (To ALL – Star) MLB Players Available!

I am sick and tired of hearing about Draft Picks being coveted by clubs, and in particular with the picks 11 – 30th having to be given up as compensation for signing a guy who was extended a Qualifying Offer. Prospects turn into Suspects in a real hurry. Only 4 or 5 out of the picks 11 – 30 contribute significantly within 4 years usually. Meaning if your roster is poised to win right now, go ahead and burn your pick by signing proven players that can help your squad right now!

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21

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I can’t stand it when I hear that ready to win Major League Clubs are holding off on good Free Agent Signing because of a pending Draft Pick in the coming MLB Amateur Draft being forfeited.

For current organizations like the  Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Angels, Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Mets, Detroit Tigers, KC Royals, Washington Nationals, Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants – all of them project to be contenders in 2016 except the O’s, and the last 6 clubs listed here are acting on that – while the 1st 4 are not.

Let me kind of qualify that.  The Jays did in 2015 – and may do so in 2016.  The real truth will be told by the August.1 Trade Deadline.  Not picking up a top end rotation guy by then will hurt their chances to win in the last few months and definitely in the playoffs.

Why the Baltimore Orioles Must Sign Yovani Gallardo AND Dexter Fowler

The Baltimore Orioles have spent money this winter like they’ve never spent before. There aren’t many teams shelling out over $200 million this offseason, but they haven’t really gotten any better, either.

Here’s a list of the major free agent contracts Baltimore has agreed to so far:

Matt Wieters (one year, $15.8 million)

Chris Davis (seven years, $161 million)

Darren O’Day (four years, $31 million)

Hyn Soo Kim (two years, $7 million)

Are each of these deals crucial toward the Orioles being competitive in 2016? Absolutely. However, 75 percent of these deals merely retained talent they already had from an 81-81 club. The lone newcomer – Kim – is also an unknown in his rookie season after spending his professional career in the Korean Baseball Organization.

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MLB Power Rankings: Early Win Total Predictions For Spring Of 2016

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There is parity in the American League and their is a growing distance between the good and the bad clubs in the National League.

One could argue that the top 6 teams (NYM/CHC/SF/WSH/STL/PIT) in all of the Majors reside in the NL right now, and you then you can counter that by saying they have the 6 worst squads as well (PHI/ATL/MIL/CIN/SD/COL).

The funny thing about this whole ordeal is that the AL is absolutely going to cream the NL in Interleague this forthcoming season.  On a 12 year win streak already,  I am predicting a 175 – 125 W – L for the games between both leagues. The AL speedbags the National League in my view.

Last year, the American League held a 167 – 133 mark over the National League so that prediction up there is not foreign by any means. 

Los Angeles Dodgers State Of The Union For 2016

The Dodgers need to start spending money like right now, otherwise they stand to jeopardize themselves winning a 4th straight NL West title in 2016. Both the Giants and D’Backs have signed ace pitchers this year, and added another good Starting Pitcher besides the point. The club does have several young pieces and Depth at Roster to pull off a blockbuster trade forth coming – or they still have enough resources to acquire players for their 2016 run. The clock is officially ticking gentlemen.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21

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The Dodgers are having the same kind of offseason the Baltimore Orioles had in 2014 – going into 2015.

If everyone remembers that year, they rejected a couple year contract with Grant Balfour, when he failed a physical, and they did the same thing with Grady Sizemore.

That club also traded back to back 50 Saves guy Jim Johnson.  By the way, the 2014 O’s won the AL East with a 97 – 65 record.

Key cogs in the wheel were new Closer Zach Britton, and Super Utility man Steve Pearce.  A lot of parallels can be made between that squad and the Dodgers.

Late last week, the Dodgers pulled out of a three year deal wish Hisashi Iwakuma because they had concerns with a physical.

For the whole winter they have watched the Giants sign Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, while the Diamondbacks stole Zack Greinke way from them, while trading a kings ransom for Shelby Miller.