Dallas Keuchel was considered the best pitcher in the American League in 2015, but he doesn’t look like the same pitcher in 2016. In 2015, he threw 232 innings, with a 2.48 ERA, 216 strikeouts (8.39 per 9 innings), 51 walks (1.98 per 9 innings), and a 20-8 record. So far in 2016, he has thrown 50 innings, with a 5.58 ERA, 42 strikeouts (7.56 per 9 innings), 22 walks (3.96 per 9 innings), and a 2-5 record. Based on these statistics, there is a clear problem. So is it time to start worrying about this decline in Keuchel’s production?
When diving into the analytics of his velocity, pitch selection, and pitch location, there are a few red flags. The first red flag is the significant drop in his velocity. In 2015, his four-seam fastball averaged 89.6 MPH, his two-seam fastball averaged 89.5 MPH, and his cut-fastball averaged 86.3 MPH. In 2016, he is averaging 88.4 MPH with his four-seam, 88.2 MPH with his two-seam, and 85.5 MPH with his cut-fastball.
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