Todd Frazier, Chris Carter and the Most “Average” 40-Homer Seasons Since 2002

An MLB hitter posting a season with at least 40 home runs is never not impressive, but is there a time when it’s not as impressive as it should be?

The answer to that question is yes.

Upon seeing players at the top of home run leaderboards for any given year, there could be a tendency to automatically think they’re some of baseball’s best. With regard to 2016, only eight sluggers surpassed 40 homers, but there are four that stand out: Mark Trumbo, Khris Davis, Chris Carter and Todd Frazier.

Despite mashing taters with the best of them this past season, their overall numbers – we’re talking about fWAR, in particular – don’t follow suit. Davis’ 2.5 fWAR is the highest, which just barely squeaks into the top-75 in 2016.

Obviously, this metric brings defense into the equation, but it intrigued me enough to investigate how their homer-rich performances rank against others in recent memory.

Using FanGraphs’ new splits leaderboard, I went all the way back to 2002 to see how the 40-homer seasons from these four stacked up, and it didn’t paint a pretty picture for a couple of sluggers.

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Daily Fantasy MLB DFS Picks For DraftKings 5/28/16

P- Zack Greinke (vs. San Diego Padres): The Padres’ offense has been one of the worst in Major League Baseball all year long. Not only have they struggled this year, but they have struggled against Greinke every time he stepped on the mound. In 178 career at bats against Greinke, the Padres’ batters are batting a cool .191, with one home run, eight RBIs, 44 strikeouts, and a .237 OBP.

Greinke has struggled at some points in 2016, but he has been very good in his last two games, which were against the New York Yankees and St. Louis Cardinals. Greinke has thrown one game against the Padres this year, in which he threw 7.1 innings, giving up six hits, two earned runs, one walk, and five strikeouts.

 

P- Wade Miley (vs. Minnesota Twins): $9,100. In Miley’s last six starts, he is 5-0 with a 3.12 ERA. So far this season, he hasn’t had a noticeable “easy” matchup, so it should be nice to face a struggling Twins’ offense.

The Minnesota Twins have by far the worst offensive stats against left-handed pitchers this season out of all Major League Baseball teams. In 263 at bats against lefties, they are hitting a whopping .209 (last in MLB), 21 runs (last in MLB, and a .285 OBP. Well folks, we are in luck because Wade Miley does in fact throw with his left arm.

 

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Daily Fantasy MLB DFS Picks For DraftKings 5/14/16

If you have any questions or comments about this article or fantasy baseball, please Tweet me @dynasty_digest. I post daily DFS lineups for Draft Kings everyday, so please make sure to follow my blog (dynastydigest.sportsblog.com) and my Twitter for updates.

Saturday could be a very rough day for pitchers, which is why I’m spending more money on hitters. Out of the 15 games on the slate, 11 games are being played at a stadium that has at least a 10 MPH wind blowing towards the outfield. Weather can play a huge role in daily fantasy, which is why the intense winds on Saturday could really shake up some of the potential pitching math-ups.

P- Aaron Nola (vs. Cincinnati Reds): $9,500

P- Ervin Santana (vs. Cleveland Indians): $7,000

 

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MLB Power Rankings 2016: Week 2 – April

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_Hunter21

Follow The BBBA On Twitter Follow @baseballblogs

Disclaimer:  We based these rankings on best strength to win the World Series.  Therefore some teams that have an easier division to play in, with the least path of resistance to the postseason overall may be ranked a lot higher than a club who is equally talented, yet may play in a juggernaut of a division.

The Cubs will top our list for a second straight week despite losing 2 out of 3 games to the Rockies at Wrigley Field this weekend.  The biggest reason is the pitching.

Jake Arrieta is 3 – 0, and has picked up right where we he left off in 2015, and Jon Lester has thrown awesome too.  The Bullpen has also been good.

The bats are too solid not to come around and gel as the season moves along.  They are playing .750 baseball after a 4 – 2 week still.

Bryce Harper is the best player on the planet, and has homered in 6 straight contests at Citizens Bank Ball Park (4 overall in a row for the MLB this year.)

Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy are their top players – and all performing like it, the rest of the club is following through in their secondary roles.  This team is scary.

I have the Royals as the top American League club.  This squad is 8 – 1 in games that are not started by back end of the rotation man Chris Young.

The reigning 2 time pennant winners have company on the top of the Division to make it interesting, however this team has the better pedigree the last few years.

Some may say with a weekend series win – that the Dodgers should be put in front of the Giants, yet they are still only one game ahead of San Francisco.

With the Giants – there is no real weakness, while with the Los Angeles team, the Bullpen is not giving everyone confidence in the back half of games.

The Dodger Blue is still in the top 5, so I am high on them. Kenta Maeda could be the steal of the winter with how this guy is throwing so far.  Reinforcements are starting to come back.

2016 MLB Preseason Power Rankings

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21

Follow The BBBA On Twitter Follow @baseballblogs

With just 5 weeks to the regular season – and all of the important Free Agents finally being locked up with Ian Desmond signing with the Rangers, it is time to see where all 30 MLB clubs stack up.

We are going to be running weekly power rankings once the year starts on Apr.3, 2016.

The way I compile the Power Rankings is best on confidence to win the World Series.  Some clubs may be more talented (or playing better) than a squad they are behind in the rankings,  but the Division (and strength of opponents) plays a massive factor.

It is the reason why teams like the Royals or Astros will be selected above a team like the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Pittsburgh Pirates might win 90 games (which may only see one AL club join them), but because they have to contend with the Cards and Cubs in the NL Central, it will be tough for them to receive a great ranking (at least until games are played).

Odds To Win The Overall Homer Crown In 2016 MLB Baseball: Battle Of The Big Fly’s

Stanton has light tower power – and should lead the NL and Majors in Homers if he can remain healthy for a whole year.   In just 74 Games Played last campaign, the big slugger belted 27 HRs.  The problem is always staying on the field.  There is no reason to think he can’t crack 50+ HRs if he played a full season.  To aid his efforts as the biggest favorite to win this years MLB Homer crown – is that Marlins Park is bringing in the fences and also lowering them.

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21

Follow The BBBA On Twitter Follow @baseballblogs

I am flat-out wondering why these guys failed to include Chris Carter on this list?  For a prolific Home Run Hitter over the last 3 years (90 bombs), this guy is getting no respect.

I mean they have Corey Seager, Matt Adams and Freddie Freeman at the +20000 clip, but no word for a guy who finished 2nd in 2014 MLB Homers?

Carter is headed to the best home run park in the Major Leagues in Milwaukee, and will not be on a competitive club, where his AB may be in question.  Sure the guy might fan 250 times in 600 AB this season, but he may crack 40 taters for all we know.

I have requested this gambling website send me the odd for Carter (you can request a player that wasn’t listed), and I will get back to you shortly.

Let me start by saying that if Giancarlo Stanton remains healthy for a full year that he should definitely lead the Majors in longballs.  Despite us predicting him to do this, his odd only is listed as our #5 value best bet on the board.

The White Sox Need To Sign 1 Of Fowler Or Desmond To Stay Competitive

The White Sox have had a decent offseason however every team that was near or beneath them in the standings have also upgrade their rosters going into 2016. With a need for an upgrade for the OF, and the chance to put forth an incredible homer-centric Infield, I would love to see them go after Ian Desmond, and/or Dexter Fowler.

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21

Follow The BBBA On Twitter Follow @baseballblogs

I like the moves the White Sox have done in the offseason.  The only problem is what the Royals and Tigers also have done this winter will make it tough for Chicago to keep up.

The Pale Hose finished a disappointing 76 – 86 in 2015 and almost 20 games behind Division winner KC for the AL Central.

2014 winter moves of Adam LaRoche, Jeff Samardzija and Melky Cabrera just didn’t work out like they thought.

Despite the poor results off those player acquisitions Rich Hahn acquired Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie so far in the hot stove this year, and also inked catchers Alex Avila and Dioner Navarro as key moves.

I love this aggression – and even believe that LaRoche and Cabrera will have bounce back seasons for the White Sox this season.  Cabrera was pretty decent in the 2nd half, and LaRoche suffered the Adam Dunn NL to AL syndrome.

Having said this already, the Royals are sitting with a talented squad as reigning World Series Champs, and the Tigers added Jordan Zimmermann, Justin Upton, and bushel full of relievers and Cameron Maybin.

There is no doubt in my mind that Detroit will be much better than their cellar dweller 2015 campaign.

The White Sox have a decent pitching staff in its entirety. Maybe not as talented as the Cleveland Indians, but the Tribe doesn’t have the sticks as Chicago either.

KC has the best bullpen in the Division, and will rely heavily on it again with their grinder offense backing it up.

Minnesota has a ton of young offensive superstars in Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier and Byron Buxton, yet also lost team leader Torii Hunter.

Chicago is still spending at a decent clip – having a budget of near $123 MIL so far, but Detroit has crept up to near $200 MIL, and KC has paid for its title, by going near the $140 MIL team salary barrier.

Odds To Win The 2016 MLB Divisions

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part Owner) Follow @stokes_hunter21

Follow The MLB Reports On Twitter Follow @mlbreports

Not that much has happened since we last checked into these numbers over the last 3 weeks.  The biggest jump on the board was the Giants going to favorites of the NL West after the Johnny Cueto signing.

The Dodgers have since countered and are making this race for the NL West that much better again.  It wasn’t long ago that the Los Angeles NL franchise were the favorites to win the entire World Series.

I think it is almost a dead heat right now between San Francisco and LA – and could come down to the transactions that are done in the next 8 months.

New York did pick up Aroldis Chapman but are still only listed as the 3rd favorite in the Division.  New York has the best Bullpen, the Jays the best offense – and Boston might be the best overall club in the AL East.

If you believe the Yankees will continue to spend $ like Washington is printing it everyday should they contend this coming season, that +200 for the Division is a good odd.

MLB Power Rankings New Year Of 2016

Perhaps the Back to the Future Prediction was off by just one year. The Cubs , who are immensely loaded with young offensive superstars added another to the mix with the Jason Heyward signing. Add that to a revamped Bullpen, strong Starters signed last year in Jon Lester and Jason Hammel, coupled with John Lackey this year, and this team is the clear cut #1 ranked team. Oh yeah..They even have depth to make another trade should they need to.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part-Owner) Follow @stokes_hunter21

Follow The MLB Reports On Twitter Follow @mlbreports

(1) Chicago Cubs: Big additions of Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist and John Lackey.  Tonnes of young superstars only ging to get better.

(2) NY Mets:  Starting Pitching best in the Majors.  Offensive depth better in offseason.  Need David Wright to stay healthy.  NL East easiest bottom 3 teams in the bigs.

(3) Kansas City Royals:  Easiest Division in the Majors.  Back to Back AL Pennants and defending World Series Champs.  Look for some more mid year deals.

The Top 5 Home Run Hitters In MLB For 2015 + Homer Stats

Giancarlo Stanton should contend for the NL HR championship crown in 2016. He is capable of cracking 40 – 50 HRs if he can play a year completely healthy. The Marlins are lucky to have one of the best young hitters in the game.  In 2015, he clubbed 27 HRs in just 279 AB for the season.  That is about a HR every 10 AB. If he could play 150 games in a year, he may easily crack the 50+HR mark.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part-Owner) Follow @stokes_hunter21

Follow The MLB Reports On Twitter Follow @mlbreports

There were 9 guys who tallied 40+ HRs in the Major Leagues and 6 of them came from the AL and just 3 came from the NL. Furthermore, out of 20 players that cracked 30+ HRs, only 6 came from the Senior Circuit.

The National League has also seen that Todd Frazier joined the White Sox in the offseason.