Neil Walker Accepting Qualifying Offer Should Have Matt Wieters-Like Impact on Mets’ Offseason

It’s only the middle of November, but the New York Mets just gained a whole lot of clarity to their offseason plan. And while the fan base is still upset about Bartolo Colon heading to the Atlanta Braves, they have reason to be excited about what’s to come.

Second baseman Neil Walker was one of just two players out of a possible 10 to accept a qualifying offer on Monday, meaning he’ll be returning to the Mets on a one-year deal for $17.2 million. That’s a lot of money for a middle infielder, but Sandy Alderson is clearly confident in Walker making a full recovery for Opening Day.

Some may feel this could hamper New York’s ability to re-sign outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, but it should actually have the opposite kind of impact. Call me overly optimistic here, but watching Walker accept the qualifying offer was exactly what the front office needed in order to operate under a “win now” mentality…even more than before.

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These 4 Offseason MLB Trades Look Awfully Lopsided Now

There are less than two weeks before MLB’s non-waiver trade deadline passes in 2016, but we can’t help looking back at some of last winter’s most notable deals as we wait for more to happen.

It’s common for fans and analysts to crown a “winner” and “loser” for any kind of swap between two or more teams. However, those conversations happen right when a deal takes place more often than down the road when it’s easier justify either side of the argument with a player’s performance.

As usual, last winter contained a ton of player movement, both on the free agent market and through trades. The initial perspectives on the following four swaps are no longer relevant because there’s no question each of them now look incredibly lopsided.

Let’s revisit these trades for a stroll down memory lane as the current trade market continues heating up: 

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Daily Fantasy MLB DFS Picks For Draft Kings 5/2/16

P- Jon Gray (vs. San Diego Padres): $7,900. This is a pretty risky play on Monday, but many factors point towards Gray having a big game. Gray struggled in his first two starts this season, but they have been against two very tough teams, the Pirates and Dodgers, and they were played at Coors Field. Coors Field has not been kind to Gray in his 7 career starts at home. In those starts, he has thrown 29.1 innings, with a 9.20 ERA, 52 hits against, 9 walks, and 29 strikeouts. In 4 career starts on the road, he has thrown 20 innings, with a 2.70 ERA, 16 hits, 8 walks, and 25 strikeouts. Luckily, Gray will be on the road on Monday. Not only will he be on the road, but he is pitching at a pitcher’s park in San Diego against a mediocre offense. In his only career start versus the Padres, he threw 5 innings, giving up 2 hits, 2 walks, and 6 strikeouts. Gray’s impressive career strikeout rate (9.5 strikeouts per 9 innings), success on the road, and favorable matchup all point to a great performance on Monday.

P- Johnny Cueto (vs. Cincinnati Reds): $10,800. This start is going to be an emotional one for Cueto. He will be returning to Cincinnati for the first time since he was traded. He played 8 years in Cincinnati, so the fans will be behind him and I’m sure he wants to put on a show. Not only will his emotions play a factor, but he is facing one of the worst offenses in Major League Baseball. The Reds are ranked as the 28th overall offense, which is clearly a huge advantage for Cueto. In Cueto’s first 5 starts in 2016, he is 4-1, with a 2.65 ERA, 33 strikeouts, and only 5 walks. In his 98 career starts at Cincinnati’s home stadium, he has a 48-22 record, and a 2.91 ERA. All signs point to a huge day for Cueto on Monday. He is averaging 25 points per game on Draft Kings this season.

 

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Daily Fantasy MLB DFS Picks For Draft Kings 4/22/16

P- Aaron Nola (vs. Milwaukee Brewers) $8,300. Rather than picking an elite pitcher and a low/mid tier guy (which I typically do), I’m sticking with two very solid mid-tier options. Aaron Nola has been very impressive this year despite his high ERA. In 19 innings pitched, he has 23 strikeouts, a 5.68 ERA, but he owns a 3.14 FIP. His low FIP shows that his ERA is very inflated and shouldn’t reflect his performance early in the season. He has a great strikeout rate and he is facing a very weak Milwaukee Brewers offense. The Brewers have the 5th most strikeouts in Major League Baseball, so there is a great chance Nola will capitalize on the swing and misses of the Brewers on Friday.

P- Aaron Sanchez (vs. Oakland A’s): $7,200. Sanchez has started 2016 on a very impressive hot streak. In 20 innings pitched, he has a  1.35 ERA, 20 strikeouts, and 7 walks. His walk rate could hurt you a little bit, but at this price, I think he is worth it. He is facing the 25th worst offense in baseball on Friday. While the Oakland A’s don’t strikeout much (113 strikeouts, which is 11th best in the MLB), they do struggle to take a walk (only 37 walks, which ranks as the 5th worst rate in the MLB). Since Sanchez’s kryptonite has been his walk rate in his career, this statistic could work to his favor on Friday. If he can limit the walks, he could be a very solid daily fantasy option.

 

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Odds To Win The MLB 2016 World Series + Best And Worst Bets

The Mets made it to the World Series in 2015 after a subpar start heading into the Trade Deadline. With a ton of pitching and some decent positional players still on the roster, they could set themselves up for a lengthy run in the NL East. Especially if they can coordinate a couple of trades near the Trade Deadline.  While they may have started slow, the bats are alive and well, and the rotation should come around soon.  They are this week’s best odd.

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_Hunter21 Follow @baseballblogs

The Nationals asserted themselves on this leaderboard thanks to a quick start.  They were my 2nd best bet last week at +1100.  Now the odd at +650 is not worth any money at all.

Since Washington was able to play so well, this has created the perfect storm to put some more cash on the Mets.  At +1300, New York is just begging for a wager.

The strength of schedule to which the Nats have played has definitely factored in.  2 series versus the Braves and Marlins and one against the Phillies already, Dusty Baker‘s club has had about a ‘cupcake itinerary’ as you possibly could find.

It gets better for the District’s squad, as they go home for another series with Philadelphia – that comes on the heels of a weekend Interleague series versus the Twins.

If Washington wins those 2 series, they should be about 15 or 16 wins after 22 games.  They should cement themselves in the playoffs with an easy NL East opponents schedule all year.  I just want to see them play some tougher clubs.

The Mets offense has sprung to life behind the backs of Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker, David Wright and Michael Conforto.  When the Pitching Rotation settles in a little bit, they should take off.

While Washington is leading the Division, they have yet to face the NL reigning pennant winners.  The division win could come down to the 19 contests between the two clubs.

Terry Collins‘ team has 16 straight games versus squads with losing records.  While the Giants are capable of contending all year, New York should be able to match them well for pitching.

The Dodgers Make The Right Move To Re-Sign Kendrick

The Dodgers may have overpaid to hold on to Brett Anderson with the Qualifying Offer, however lucked out with Howie Kendrick rejected the QO in November, only to sign for just $4.2 MIL for a 2nd year. The club was able to ink the 31-year-old to a 2 YR/$20 MIL – where the Qualifying Offer would have paid him $15.8 MIL for just 2016. That is luck for the Los Angeles franchise.

Hunter Stokes (Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21

Follow The BBBA On Twitter Follow @baseballblogs

The Dodgers are running pretty good today with the status quo on the offensive side of the ball anyway.

Since it was agreed on that Howie Kendrick would sign a 2 year deal for $20 MIL – this is an economic win.

1st off, the Dodgers avoided the $15.8 MIL Qualifying Offer they extended their 2015 2B, then only had to pad $4.2 MIL to the total for a 2nd season.

This is a loss financially for Kendrick, who must have thought a multi-year offer of 3 – 4 campaigns must have been out there for the same kind of money that Daniel Murphy signed for (3 years at $12 MIL per AAV).

Howie Kendrick was unfortunately in the same market as Daniel Murphy and also lost another club that could have bid for his services, when the New York Mets traded for Neil Walker. Kendrick is a .293 Career Hitter, but doesn’t really have great power for Extra Base Hits. This brought down his value a little. He is till a great professional hitter. I am surprised the Angels didn’t come calling for his services – considering the lower AAV.

Not only did the Dodgers brass finally reel in their Starting Second Baseman, they were able to add Chase Utley as a backup/quality bench hitter for $7 MIL.  If you combined Kendrick and Utley salaries, it is just $1.2 MIL over what would have happened had Kendrick accepted the QO.

Love Kendrick as a professional hitter.  The man is a .293/.333/.423 career hitter – and his 2015 season closely resembled this at .295/.336/.409 in 2015 for the Dodger Blue.

It shows that the Dodgers management/ownership is also willing to fork out the necessary dollars to keep up their NL West Division prowess.

As the 3 time defending Division Champs,  they are in prime position to challenge the Giants for a 4th year in a row in 2016.

This contract vaults the Dodgers up to around $245 MIL in total team salary in 2016, yet it was a necessary move.

Los Angeles is also staring at a 50% penalty for going over the Luxury Tax Threshold for a 4th straight year.  They will pay around $28 MIL with cash situated as it is now.

For the fans that wanted the organization to dole up for the bigger Free Agents, it is hard to fathom paying that 50% penalty for years upon years at the present rate.

This approach has had the super management team of Andrew Friedman, Farhan Zaidi, Josh Byrnes and newly appointed Alex Anthopoulos under heavy scrutiny, but may work out better in the long run.

Had the club inked Zack Greinke to his $34.42 MIL AAV, that would have put them so far in committed $ over the Luxury Tax, that they would never be able to get under for a reset.

With the 2016 season concluding without a CBA after, it is also wise not to be so far over the Luxury Tax mark when they don’t know what the new deal between the MLBPA and the owners will look like.

2017 has them over $203 MIL in contracts guaranteed to 12 guys already, but 8 players will become Free Agents after the 2016 season, and after 2017’s end comes the best news for Dodger fans.  Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford will finally be off the books!

The Dodgers have a ton of young talent coming into the fold here.  Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig, Corey Seager, Clayton Kershaw and Kenta Maeda are under team control for a long period of time here.  You still have Julio Urias just coming up to the Major Leagues for service time as well.

The Infield is definitely going to be clogged up with Utley, Enrique Hernandez and Alex Guerrero on the depth chart.  Guerrero is out of options and will need to be kept on the Major League Roster (or be released, waived or DFA’d).

Of course Justin Turner is listed as the Starter at 3B for now.  Micah Johnson and Utley may join Hernandez as guys that could spell him at the hot corner.

Guerrero could also play the OF, but I am sure that Dave Roberts would love to use Scott Van Slyke as 1st on the taxi squad.

Los Angeles has also strengthened its bench with this move.  The one thing they could still use it Relief help.  That may be obtained by signing more Free Agents, or perhaps this may clear the deck for another trade to happen.

The Dodgers were 10th in the NL during 2015 – with a .250 Batting Average, and losing a .293 hitter last year would have been tough for this years lineup.

With Corey Seager for a full year, and a return to prominence for Yasiel Puig, this squad could really put up some runs and improve all facets of the offense.

While the club wasn’t so great at Batting Average, they were 3rd in the Senior Circuit in Slugging Percentage at .413.

One has to also think that Chase Utley will be a lot better in reserve role – compared to his .202/.291/.363 3 Slash Line with the team last year.  I would say he could be 80% like his worst year (prior to 2015), where he hit .259/.344/.425 in 2012.

For the record, baseballreference.com has Utley hitting .247/.315/.398 in 2016.  I am sure the club would take that.

Whether the implementation of a lot of players on the roster – as opposed to having a limited bench and depth if they would have signed Greinke projects well to the upcoming season is yet to be determined. 4

No doubt they are not as strong in the Rotation at the top. But perhaps the addition of Scott Kazmir, the return of Hyun-jin Ryu, Alex Wood for a full year, and a surprise comeback from Brandon McCarthy could pick up the slack.

Signing Kendrick was the right move all day long.  This is one less position with the team having questions for.

The fans are seeing a different management philosophy with the new brass under the tutelage of Andrew Friedman. They are taking a big long term picture look. Even though they wasted $90 MIL in dead money last year with questionable decisions, they are trying to clear the deck for many years  in the future, by dropping the heavy amount of committed dollars. With a new CBA forthcoming, who knows what the new Luxury Tax Threshold will be. At least by keeping the new contracts to smaller years and figures, Los Angeles may be able to drop underneath the limit in 2018 – 2020.  Right near they are at a 50% penalty for every season they are over the Luxury Tax ($189 MIL) until they get under.

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of bbba.work and their other members***

A big thanks goes out to our featured writer Hunter Stokes for preparing today’s featured post.

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MLB Power Rankings: Early Win Total Predictions For Spring Of 2016

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part Owner) Follow @stokes_hunter21

Follow The MLB Reports On Twitter Follow @mlbreports

There is parity in the American League and their is a growing distance between the good and the bad clubs in the National League.

One could argue that the top 6 teams (NYM/CHC/SF/WSH/STL/PIT) in all of the Majors reside in the NL right now, and you then you can counter that by saying they have the 6 worst squads as well (PHI/ATL/MIL/CIN/SD/COL).

The funny thing about this whole ordeal is that the AL is absolutely going to cream the NL in Interleague this forthcoming season.  On a 12 year win streak already,  I am predicting a 175 – 125 W – L for the games between both leagues. The AL speedbags the National League in my view.

Last year, the American League held a 167 – 133 mark over the National League so that prediction up there is not foreign by any means. 

Dear FanGraphs On Your 2016 MLB Season Projections: I Wish You Ran A Gambling Site

Talk about no respect. Back to back pennants and a projection by Fangraphs to finish tied for 12th in the American League with 79 wins, and 16 less than 2015 – even though the talent level is pretty much status quo. KC, STL and PIT are all projected to tank 15 games each from 2016 – 2015. No way fellas.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21

Follow The BBA On Twitter Follow @baseballblogs

So I studied the recent FanGraphs projections for the upcoming 2016 MLB Year and was completely shocked at where these guys had the defending World Series Champions projected at….79 – 83 and tied for the 12th best record in the Junior Circuit??!!

Fangraphs, you are high if  you think that will actually take place.  For that, I wish you ran a gambling website to promote betting.  The sharps would have a field day on  a couple of these selections.  I would throw down some serious money on your totals.

Lets not entirely rule out Cleveland winning the AL Central as they have also prognosticated here, albeit at just 84 wins.  That victory total is about right for the Tribe – But how can you have all AL teams (except BOS) pegged between 78 – 86 wins?

MLB Power Rankings New Year Of 2016

Perhaps the Back to the Future Prediction was off by just one year. The Cubs , who are immensely loaded with young offensive superstars added another to the mix with the Jason Heyward signing. Add that to a revamped Bullpen, strong Starters signed last year in Jon Lester and Jason Hammel, coupled with John Lackey this year, and this team is the clear cut #1 ranked team. Oh yeah..They even have depth to make another trade should they need to.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part-Owner) Follow @stokes_hunter21

Follow The MLB Reports On Twitter Follow @mlbreports

(1) Chicago Cubs: Big additions of Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist and John Lackey.  Tonnes of young superstars only ging to get better.

(2) NY Mets:  Starting Pitching best in the Majors.  Offensive depth better in offseason.  Need David Wright to stay healthy.  NL East easiest bottom 3 teams in the bigs.

(3) Kansas City Royals:  Easiest Division in the Majors.  Back to Back AL Pennants and defending World Series Champs.  Look for some more mid year deals.

New York Mets State Of The Union For 2016

The Mets made it to the World Series in 2015 after a subpar start heading into the Trade Deadline. With a ton of pitching and some decent positional players still on the roster, they could set themselves up for a lengthy run in the NL East. After tinkering with average players in acquisitions (other than Neil Walker – who is a comparable replacement for Daniel Murphy), it looks like GM Sandy Alderson is done constructing the offense for 2016.  I think this is a critical error.

Chuck Booth (Owner/Lead  Analyst) Follow @chuckbooth3024

Follow The MLB Reports On Twitter Follow @mlbreports

It has been a decent offseason for the New York Mets so far.  They have resigned Bartolo Colon, filled in the spot at 2B with an almost equal amount of talent for Daniel Murphy, while adding Asdrubal Cabrera is also a wise move.

The organization even resigned Jerry Blevins to the Relief Core.  There is still potential to add another arm or 2 for late innings in the Bullpen.

On Tuesday, it was announced the OF Alejandro De Aza has joined the club for a one year deal at $5.75 MIL (and $1.25 MIL in incentives).  This guy can play all 3 OF positions, but he really should be a 4th OF on a championship team caliber style of team.