Matt Kemp has had quite the 2016 campaign so far for the San Diego Padres. In 167 plate appearances, he is batting .244, with 10 home runs, 29 RBIs, and 20 runs. While he doesn’t have the value he once did, he could improve many competing teams who have a lack of talent in their outfield. His power and run production could be a big boost to many lineups, including the Seattle Mariners.
The Mariners are currently 22-17 and sitting at the top of the American League West. They aren’t necessarily struggling with run production, but their outfield doesn’t strike fear into many pitcher’s eyes. Their outfield is currently manned by Nori Aoki (.224 BA, 0 HR, 6 RBIs, 20 R, 2 SB), Leonys Martin (.203 BA, 6 HR, 14 RBIs, 16 R, 7 SB), and Seth Smith (.240 BA, 4 HR, 14 RBIs, 18 R). Realistically, Kemp could take over for any one of these players and provide an upgrade to the Mariners’ lineup.
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I was all set to pounce on my 1st American League bet for the Fall Classic in 2016 earlier this week – when the O’s were at +5000, and presumably bringing both Dexter Fowler and Yovani Gallardo into the stable.
With Fowler opting back to Chicago, the odd also dropped to +4500 in the meantime (also following the Gallardo wait time for the physical fiasco), and the value is no longer there.
Baltimore is a low 80 wins team in my view, and will not have enough for the postseason. Fowler would have added a few W’s for sure.
Of course with the chaos that has ensued, the Cubs have gone from +700 to +650 prohibitive best odd. There is no doubt in my mind they should be the consensus favorite.
One of these years the #1 seed will capitalize and win. I am still not plunking down cabbage at that clip though.
If I were to do my year end picks right now, I would still have Chicago ending their World Series 108 seasons drought – but I can’t place them as twice the favorite as the St. Louis Cardinals.
Still not sold on the Cubs Bullpen either, and I think Jon Lester can be had in the postseason. The Mets also line up favorably versus Chicago based on pitching matchups. New York has the better odds to wager with.
I am currently writing a faceoff piece between the Cubbies and Cards that I will post over the weekend. The difference is not a whopping 8 or 10 games like FanGraphs and PECOTA say. St. Louis should still be in the mid 90’s for victories by years end. Read the rest of this entry