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Todd Frazier, Chris Carter and the Most “Average” 40-Homer Seasons Since 2002

An MLB hitter posting a season with at least 40 home runs is never not impressive, but is there a time when it’s not as impressive as it should be?

The answer to that question is yes.

Upon seeing players at the top of home run leaderboards for any given year, there could be a tendency to automatically think they’re some of baseball’s best. With regard to 2016, only eight sluggers surpassed 40 homers, but there are four that stand out: Mark Trumbo, Khris Davis, Chris Carter and Todd Frazier.

Despite mashing taters with the best of them this past season, their overall numbers – we’re talking about fWAR, in particular – don’t follow suit. Davis’ 2.5 fWAR is the highest, which just barely squeaks into the top-75 in 2016.

Obviously, this metric brings defense into the equation, but it intrigued me enough to investigate how their homer-rich performances rank against others in recent memory.

Using FanGraphs’ new splits leaderboard, I went all the way back to 2002 to see how the 40-homer seasons from these four stacked up, and it didn’t paint a pretty picture for a couple of sluggers.

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Daily Fantasy MLB DFS Picks For Draft Kings 5/19/16

If you have any questions or comments about this article or fantasy baseball, please Tweet me @dynasty_digest. I post daily DFS lineups for Draft Kings everyday, so please make sure to follow my blog (dynastydigest.sportsblog.com) and my Twitter for updates.

 

P- Matt Harvey (vs. Washington Nationals): $9,700. Harvey has really struggled this year, but Thursday could be the day that Harvey comes out of his slump. In 134 career at bats against Harvey, the Nationals lineup is batting .209, with only 9 RBIs, and a .271 OBP. Harvey’s price has dropped significantly due to his regression, but this could be time to buy him when he is low. Staying away from the incredibly expensive pitchers (Chris Sale, Stephen Strasburg, etc) has helped my offensive lineup for Friday.

 

P- Marco Estrada (vs. Minnesota Twins): $8,100. Estrada has been lights out in 2016. In 43.2 innings pithed, he has a 2.89 ERA, 41 strikeouts, and 18 walks. He will be facing a struggling Twins lineup on Friday, so this should be a great matchup for Estrada. In 62 career at bats versus Estrada, the Twins lineup is batting .226, with 12 strikeouts, and a .294 OBP.

 

To view the rest of the lineup, click the link below:

 

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Odds To Win The Overall Homer Crown In 2016 MLB Baseball: Battle Of The Big Fly’s

Stanton has light tower power - and should lead the NL in Homers if he can remain healthy for a whole year. While it doesn't lock up a postseason berth having an MVP type season - coupled with a CY Young caliber pitcher on the field, it should translate in a chance to contend for the year.

Stanton has light tower power – and should lead the NL and Majors in Homers if he can remain healthy for a whole year.   In just 74 Games Played last campaign, the big slugger belted 27 HRs.  The problem is always staying on the field.  There is no reason to think he can’t crack 50+ HRs if he played a full season.  To aid his efforts as the biggest favorite to win this years MLB Homer crown – is that Marlins Park is bringing in the fences and also lowering them.

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) 

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I am flat-out wondering why these guys failed to include Chris Carter on this list?  For a prolific Home Run Hitter over the last 3 years (90 bombs), this guy is getting no respect.

I mean they have Corey Seager, Matt Adams and Freddie Freeman at the +20000 clip, but no word for a guy who finished 2nd in 2014 MLB Homers?

Carter is headed to the best home run park in the Major Leagues in Milwaukee, and will not be on a competitive club, where his AB may be in question.  Sure the guy might fan 250 times in 600 AB this season, but he may crack 40 taters for all we know.

I have requested this gambling website send me the odd for Carter (you can request a player that wasn’t listed), and I will get back to you shortly.

Let me start by saying that if Giancarlo Stanton remains healthy for a full year that he should definitely lead the Majors in longballs.  Despite us predicting him to do this, his odd only is listed as our #5 value best bet on the board. Read the rest of this entry

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