Jose Abreu is a Perfect Example Why Traditional Stats Don’t Tell The Whole Story

To evaluate the effectiveness of a baseball player, statistics have evolved into much more than wins and losses or home runs and RBI. Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu is the perfect example as to why perception isn’t necessarily reality with regard to offensive production.

On Monday, FanGraphs published a piece detailing how the White Sox could run this offseason depending on which direction the front office wanted to take the organization. In that article, Dave Cameron said this about Abreu:

“Abreu has lost some value by going the wrong way offensively the last few years, but he finished the second half on a big upswing, and remains vastly underpriced relative to what it will cost to sign an inferior player like Mark Trumbo.”

As important as traditional stats are, we all know they’re not the be-all, end-all in today’s game. Actually, they probably don’t mean a whole lot to quite a few executives and talent evaluators.

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Daily Fantasy MLB DFS Picks For DraftKings 5/26/16

If you have any questions or comments about this article or fantasy baseball, please Tweet me @dynasty_digest. Please follow my blog for daily updates on my daily fantasy baseball rosters for DraftKings (dynastydigest.sportsblog.com).

 

P- CC Sabathia (vs. Toronto Blue Jays): $8,300

P- Kevin Gausman (vs. Houston Astros): $9,300

 

To view the rest of the picks, click the link below:

 

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Cubs and White Sox had Different Offseason Strategies, But Could Experience a Similar Summer

The journey toward fielding a competitive baseball team can happen in a multitude of ways, but as long as winning is the result, the other details will take care of themselves.

A perfect example of this is what’s going on in Chicago right now with the Cubs and White Sox.

Based on their young roster and improvements made over the winter, the Cubs are a popular pick to win this year’s World Series. Predictions be damned, they still have to go out and prove it. Even though the season is barely two weeks old, the results have been excellent. Chicago’s National League squad is entering Friday’s game against the Colorado Rockies with an MLB-best 8-1 record.

Meanwhile, the White Sox have seemingly flown under the radar in their own city with an equally impressive 7-2 record. At the moment, they’re tied for first place in the competitive AL Central with the Kansas City Royals.

The schedule is 162 games long for a reason and what happens over the first couple weeks brings no guarantee for the remainder of the year. Still, it’s interesting to see how these two Chicago teams have taken completely different routes with regard to roster construction and on-field play before seeing similar results through nine games.

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MLB Power Rankings: Week 1 Results – April 2016

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_Hunter21

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Disclaimer:  We based these rankings on best strength to win the World Series.  Therefore some teams that have an easier division to play in, with the least path of resistance to the postseason overall may be ranked a lot higher than a club who is equally talented, yet may play in a juggernaut of a division.

Team – Rank (W – L Record) (Last week ranking in parenthesis)

(1) Chicago Cubs  (5 – 1)  (1):  The Cubs weathered the loss of their slugging OF Kyle Schwarber this week – by taking 5 of the 1st 6 games played, and all on the road.  After these 6 contests – the squad is outscoring their opponents 42 – 15.

Love the idea of setting the table with Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist 1-2-3 prior to the boppers coming after in Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant.

Having the 2015 NL ROY may help Rizzo win the NL MVP this season.  He had 10 RBI this week – including a 6 RBI effort.

Jake Arrieta is already 2 – 0, and this team shows no signs of slowing down.

(2)  KC Royals  (4 – 1) (2):  This club just knows how to win with the dominant Bullpen and clutch hitting.  They have only yielded 11 runs thus far, and this team has not even hit huge strides on offense yet.

The AL Central is better in 2016 there is no question, however KC will be ready to take them on.  There may not be a more filthy Late Inning Reliever right now than Wade Davis.  Edinson Volquez has picked up right where he left off in 2015 as well.

Odds To Win The American League Rookie Of The Year

The American League has some young talent, however about only half of the guys on this list will even break camp with their parent big clubs,and others will be blocked for various reasons -including against each other on their own squads. There is really only one good bet and one bad for entire 15 guy list.

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21

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1st off the Twins have the top 3 players listed for the category in Buxton, Ho-Park and Berrios.

All Minnesota youngsters could make the squad, although Buxton is posting just a .567 OPS  in Spring Training –  after only putting up a .576 OPS in his 129 AB for 2015. He will be given the starting job to either make it or not, after the trade of Aaron Hicks.  Don’t like the favorite status for most of these categories, this will ring true one more time.

Ho-Park has looked solid at the dish so far with a 3 Slash of .283/.306/.543 – with 3 HRs and 13 RBI in his 46 AB, and at 29 years of age – coming over from the KBO, he has years of experience next to his classmates.

Jose Abreu and Ichiro Suzuki both came over as later in life rookies to the Junior Circuit and took the honors  Ho-Park was a beast in Korea – blasting over 50+ HRs in each of the last 2 years there for his club team Nexen.

While you have to temper expectations coming overseas to North America from there, what I love is that the guy improved his numbers in each of the last 5 years.  This bodes well for him in Minny.

With a 4 year deal in his back pocket, Park will and should remain on the big roster based on his early success.

I am not sure he will win the Award, and I am not placing any cabbage on him too, but at least he won’t be subjected to service time restrictions like other rookies.

Odds To Win The 2016 AL MVP In The MLB: Best And Worst Bets

Miguel Cabrera won this award back in 2012 and 2013 – and is fully healthy this upcoming campaign, on a club that is much improved and will be in contention for a playoff spot all year. His +700 odd is a great value bet.  We are picking the man to win the American League MVP this year.  Mike Trout will likely finish 2nd again, and that is based solely on his team probably not vying for a playoff position this year in my view.  Trout should still win the AP Player of the Year and Sporting News player of the year as well..

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21

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There is no doubt in the world that Mike Trout is the best overall player in the American League, and he is still the best player in the Majors (at least for now – until Bryce Harper has a better 2016 than him again in 2015), but his team is going to make it tough for him to win the MVP over the next few years.

The 2014 winner, and 3 time runner-up in 2012, 2013 and 2015 has to be wondering what his franchise is doing wasting his talent – by surrounding a mediocre supporting cast?

Having said this, the +175 odd is still about where it should be.  If the Angels are in the race down the stretch, and he has better number than the field, Trout will take his 2nd trophy this season.

Honestly the odd that surprised me the most was the Manny Machado odd at +500.  I am not questioning his talent, or the fact he should be a top 5 player for years in the AL;  I am questioning the website for having the O’s ranked 14th out of 15 AL Clubs!

Odds To Win The Overall Homer Crown In 2016 MLB Baseball: Battle Of The Big Fly’s

Stanton has light tower power – and should lead the NL and Majors in Homers if he can remain healthy for a whole year.   In just 74 Games Played last campaign, the big slugger belted 27 HRs.  The problem is always staying on the field.  There is no reason to think he can’t crack 50+ HRs if he played a full season.  To aid his efforts as the biggest favorite to win this years MLB Homer crown – is that Marlins Park is bringing in the fences and also lowering them.

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21

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I am flat-out wondering why these guys failed to include Chris Carter on this list?  For a prolific Home Run Hitter over the last 3 years (90 bombs), this guy is getting no respect.

I mean they have Corey Seager, Matt Adams and Freddie Freeman at the +20000 clip, but no word for a guy who finished 2nd in 2014 MLB Homers?

Carter is headed to the best home run park in the Major Leagues in Milwaukee, and will not be on a competitive club, where his AB may be in question.  Sure the guy might fan 250 times in 600 AB this season, but he may crack 40 taters for all we know.

I have requested this gambling website send me the odd for Carter (you can request a player that wasn’t listed), and I will get back to you shortly.

Let me start by saying that if Giancarlo Stanton remains healthy for a full year that he should definitely lead the Majors in longballs.  Despite us predicting him to do this, his odd only is listed as our #5 value best bet on the board.

The White Sox Need To Sign 1 Of Fowler Or Desmond To Stay Competitive

The White Sox have had a decent offseason however every team that was near or beneath them in the standings have also upgrade their rosters going into 2016. With a need for an upgrade for the OF, and the chance to put forth an incredible homer-centric Infield, I would love to see them go after Ian Desmond, and/or Dexter Fowler.

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21

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I like the moves the White Sox have done in the offseason.  The only problem is what the Royals and Tigers also have done this winter will make it tough for Chicago to keep up.

The Pale Hose finished a disappointing 76 – 86 in 2015 and almost 20 games behind Division winner KC for the AL Central.

2014 winter moves of Adam LaRoche, Jeff Samardzija and Melky Cabrera just didn’t work out like they thought.

Despite the poor results off those player acquisitions Rich Hahn acquired Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie so far in the hot stove this year, and also inked catchers Alex Avila and Dioner Navarro as key moves.

I love this aggression – and even believe that LaRoche and Cabrera will have bounce back seasons for the White Sox this season.  Cabrera was pretty decent in the 2nd half, and LaRoche suffered the Adam Dunn NL to AL syndrome.

Having said this already, the Royals are sitting with a talented squad as reigning World Series Champs, and the Tigers added Jordan Zimmermann, Justin Upton, and bushel full of relievers and Cameron Maybin.

There is no doubt in my mind that Detroit will be much better than their cellar dweller 2015 campaign.

The White Sox have a decent pitching staff in its entirety. Maybe not as talented as the Cleveland Indians, but the Tribe doesn’t have the sticks as Chicago either.

KC has the best bullpen in the Division, and will rely heavily on it again with their grinder offense backing it up.

Minnesota has a ton of young offensive superstars in Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier and Byron Buxton, yet also lost team leader Torii Hunter.

Chicago is still spending at a decent clip – having a budget of near $123 MIL so far, but Detroit has crept up to near $200 MIL, and KC has paid for its title, by going near the $140 MIL team salary barrier.

Chicago White Sox State Of The Union For 2016

The White Sox should be decisively better in 2016, however to lump them in with the Royals right now for the Division is just not practical yet. However the team could hit on all cylinders and then add players as the year goes on. Chicago only stands to lose four player to Free Agency after 2016 in John Danks, Adam LaRoche, Al Avila and Dioner Navarro. The latter 2 were brought in on one year deals to provide the Catching tandem in 2015.

Chuck Booth (Owner/Lead  Analyst) Follow @chuckbooth3024

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Chicago has finally thrown their hat into the ring for the AL Central Race.  They have pulled off a trade to acquire Todd Frazier in as 3 way deal with the Reds and Dodgers.

The end result is they get 2 years from the former Reds, while parting with Trayce Thompson, Frankie Montas and Micah Johnson away from the club. It is a quality versus quantity deal.

This comes on the heels of the club picking up Brett Lawrie for 3 years worth of service for a couple of Minor Leaguers.

Before these deals, the club really only hand secured a tandem of Catchers with Alex Avila and Dioner Navarro for the offense.  Now they have much more depth, and are asserting themselves with one of the better lineups in the AL Central.

If Adam LaRoche can bounce back with his usual 25 HRs and  80 RBI power, you could have 3 Infielders and the Designated Hitter all crack 20+ HRs in the 2016 campaign.

Jose Abreu also stands to benefit with bringing in a hitter like Todd Frazier.  You could see a lineup that goes Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera, Jose Abreu, Adam LaRoche, Frazier, Lawrie, Avisail Garcia, Avila or Navarro and Tyler Saladino.  This looks a lot lengthier than a few days ago.

By the moves they made, they could also trade LaRoche to another club if they were so inclined.  There is no reason to think the Avila and Navarro couldn’t see some DH action for their roles in the 2016 club.