Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21
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I was all set to pounce on my 1st American League bet for the Fall Classic in 2016 earlier this week – when the O’s were at +5000, and presumably bringing both Dexter Fowler and Yovani Gallardo into the stable.
With Fowler opting back to Chicago, the odd also dropped to +4500 in the meantime (also following the Gallardo wait time for the physical fiasco), and the value is no longer there.
Baltimore is a low 80 wins team in my view, and will not have enough for the postseason. Fowler would have added a few W’s for sure.
Of course with the chaos that has ensued, the Cubs have gone from +700 to +650 prohibitive best odd. There is no doubt in my mind they should be the consensus favorite.
One of these years the #1 seed will capitalize and win. I am still not plunking down cabbage at that clip though.
If I were to do my year end picks right now, I would still have Chicago ending their World Series 108 seasons drought – but I can’t place them as twice the favorite as the St. Louis Cardinals.
Still not sold on the Cubs Bullpen either, and I think Jon Lester can be had in the postseason. The Mets also line up favorably versus Chicago based on pitching matchups. New York has the better odds to wager with.
I am currently writing a faceoff piece between the Cubbies and Cards that I will post over the weekend. The difference is not a whopping 8 or 10 games like FanGraphs and PECOTA say. St. Louis should still be in the mid 90’s for victories by years end. Read the rest of this entry