Made It by Thaaat Much: How Mookie and Cano Home Runs are Just Lucky Enough


Let’s start with the wonderful ESPN Home Run Tracker. The website breaks down every home run into 4 categories- No Doubter’s, Plenty’s, Just Enough’s and Lucky – for each player as well as a calculation of the number of  ballparks out of 30 that a batted ball would become a home run when normalized to calm conditions (70 degrees and no wind). ‘0’ means that the park the ball was hit in was the only one it would have made it out of, ’30’ means it would be a dinger anywhere. In 2011, the average jack cleared the walls in 23 of 30 stadiums.

After playing around with the site for a while, I decided to take a look at the impact that ball parks have on Just Enough or Lucky home runs. Is a player more likely to have a Just Enough homer when playing in certain parks? Would that homer be a no doubter elsewhere or just a fly out?

If a JE/L home run occurred in conjunction with an above average to high park number (23-30, meaning that the homer in question would be gone in 23-30 of the other MLB stadiums), I would deem the park in which it was hit to have a detrimental impact on the hit- the park configuration and the location of the hit ball in that particular setting effectively makes a ball that would normally be a home run anywhere else a very close call. The opposite holds true if JE/L homers have a below average to low park number (0-23). This means that the home-field advantage perhaps aided the batter, as it would otherwise not have the distance or height in other parks. And again the park number controls for weather effects too, so I’ve got that going for me, which is nice.

I decided to take a look at the two guys leading the league in Just Enough and Lucky home runs: Boston Red Sox’ Mookie Betts, Seattle Mariners’Robinson Cano.


Click over to our full article, to continue reading about Mookie Betts and Robinson Cano Lucky or Unlucky Home Runs.  You can also visit our full baseball blog, or follow us on Twitter: @OTB_Baseball.



About OffTheBenchBaseball

A (Mostly) Baseball Blog

Posted on June 6, 2016, in MLB Reports, Off The Bench. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: