Odds To Be The 1st MLB Manager Fired In 2016: Who Is On The Hotseat?

a hot seat

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) 

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Every year there are certain managers that have a ton of pressure to win.  This is always a tough process to think of who will be nixed first.

On one hand, many clubs that should be in contention for the playoffs will see an axe come to their tenure, however sometimes clubs are so bad record wise (even though they were projected to be) that the franchise will just slay the field general in the name of mercy.

As far as under the gun goes. guys like Brad Ausmus, John Farrell and John Gibbons.  are tops on the list. 

Ausmus doesn’t have a track record of any postseason series wins like the latter two here, so he is going to be the #1 favorite out of this group of skippers that could go fast with playoff aspirations if their teams struggle out of the starting block.

Gibbons did a great job with Toronto in 2015, but a slow start would really put his name on the block. Say if they are 6 or 7 games behind the playoff bar near Memorial Day.

Farrell has put up back to back 5th place finishes in the AL East after winning the World Series Title in his 1st year of being the skipper in 2013.

Then there is a perennial bad losing club that have long tenured coaches like Walt Weiss and Robin Ventura. I am not sure they should not have been shown the door following last years campaigns. 

Weiss has losing years for every year under his belt, and Ventura rode out 2013 with his late season collapse, but his club has underachieved in every other year.

Still the two most managers on the hot seat are Fredi Gonzalez of the Braves on top of the favorite list at +331, followed by Bryan Price at +441. But I hate putting money on either of these gentlemen with their clubs both being on track to challenge for the worst record in the Majors this year.

Heck, Gonzalez’s predecessor Bobby Cox was the well into his 3rd decade with the “Tomahawk” Choppers when he finally stepped down to a front office job. Gonzalez at least had the Braves in the playoffs in 2012. 

Price can’t really be expected to do anything with this anemic Pitching Staff, and all veterans except for Votto may be available for trade at any point.

With the Adam LaRoche fiasco to kickstart this campaign, and several lackluster seasons under his tutelage, but with expectations in 2016 - I think Ventura is made the fall guy for a White Sox team that will be strikeout centric in the lineup and will get off to their usual slow start when Chris Sale hits his dead arm period after 3 or 4 starts. His odds are the best here, but he is my pick to be replaced here.

With the Adam LaRoche fiasco to kickstart this campaign, and several lackluster seasons under his tutelage, but with expectations in 2016 – I think Ventura is made the fall guy for a White Sox team that will be strikeout centric in the lineup and will get off to their usual slow start when Chris Sale hits his dead arm period after 3 or 4 starts. His odds aren’t the best here, but he is my pick to be replaced 1st regardless.

Mike Scioscia should have the weight of the world on him in the coming year, but even though he is the 6th targeted man on the list, I have to think he staves off his own elimination again this season – no matter how bad it gets. Really the time to let him go was a few years ago.

If a change is made in Anaheim, my money is it will be in the winter following this year.

I kind of like the +2223 odd labeled on O’s skipper Buck Showalter.  I feel that Baltimore should hit themselves to a 5th straight year of .500 or better in 2016, yet with that Starting Pitching Staff being so unstable, it is really not that unfathomable to believe these guys could see a horrid start, and Showalter would be given the gate.

There are plenty of 1st year Managers that should be given the full year to see.  Jeff Green in San Diego, Scott Servais in Seattle,  and Pete Mackinin will enter his first full season after posting a  37 – 51 record.

With big expectations and a boatload of early injuries - with DL stints, it may be a fast tenure for the unproven field general here in Roberts. It wouldn't even be fair, but he also has a bench coach that possesses far more experience than him in Bob Geren. At +500 it is worth a few crisp bills plunked down.

With big expectations and a boatload of early injuries – with DL stints, it may be a fast tenure for the unproven field general here in Roberts. It wouldn’t even be fair, but he also has a bench coach that possesses far more experience than him in Bob Geren. At +500 it is worth a few crisp bills plunked down.

2 new skippers with clubs that have big hopes of contending are Dusty Baker in Washington and Dave Roberts as the Dodgers new field general. I am thinking the clubs would not be so horrible with their rosters for them to be considered here, but they are not immune from termination if their squads get off to abysmal starts.

Roberts in particular, is dealing with a myriad of injuries and DL players, has little experience, and if his team crashes out of the gate, the contingent of GM’s mayopt to replace him rather quickly with internal options. The team has Bob Geren as the bench coach – who served as the A’s skipper from 2007 – 2011.

At +5000, it is a definite thought.

Managers who are extremely safe are Bruce Bochy, Mike Matheny, Joe Maddon, Clint Hurdle, Terry Collins and Ned Yost.  If changes are to be made on these guys, I have to think it would take a dynamic catastrophe.

With George Steinbrenner not running the Yankees – with having left this world years ago – Joe Girardi should make it through another baseball year as the Yankees coach.

I am tempted to place a few dollars on Don Mattingly getting the heave/ho at +4000 – with how bad the trigger has been on the last dozen managers in South Beach. A 4 year contract is fine to own for the former Dodgers manager, but Ozzie Guillen possessed one of those and was punted within a year.

Oakland A’s skipper Bob Melvin can ill afford to have a bad year either – as with Billy Beane showing he is unpredictable as any executive, however the value is just not worth betting.  The franchise would still likely give the man until at least the ALL – Star Break.

Kevin Cash and Terry Francona are both at +2017. I don’t think either of them are in danger of the axe here. It would take a brutal year for Cleveland to fire him, and any change wouldn’t be till later.

If the Rays lose like I project them too in a tough AL East, it still shouldn’t come in any worse than 75 wins. This club had that same total last year before reeling off 5 straight victories late in the campaign to register their 8th straight 80+ win season.

I am putting my money on Robin Ventura to be clipped 1st.  Value wise, the best odds reside with Dave Roberts at +5000, John Farrell at +1323, John Gibbons at +3040 and I even think Chip Hale at +2324 and Buck Showalter at +2223 would round out my top 5 wagers.

I would say that Gonzalez is the worst odd as the favorite being +333, followed by Scioscia at +1333, Clint Hurdle at +1815, A.J.Hinch at +3556 and Pete Mackanin at +1815 round out the bad side of value.

ODDS Courtesy of betdsi.eu

MLB MANAGER TO BE FIRED 1ST ON 2016 REGULAR SEASON

FREDI GONZALEZ (ATL) +331
BRYAN PRICE (CIN) +441
ROBIN VENTURA (CHW) +495
BRAD AUSMUS (DET) +658
WALT WEISS (COL) +883
MIKE SCIOSCIA (LAA) +1333
JOHN FARRELL (BOS) +1323
PETE MACKANIN (PHI) +1815
CRAIG COUNSELL (MIL) +1815
BOB MELVIN (OAK) +1815
CLINT HURDLE (PIT) +1919
TERRY FRANCONA (CLE) +2017
KEVIN CASH (TAM) +2017
BUCK SHOWALTER (BAL) +2223
CHIP HALE (ARI) +2324
PAUL MOLITOR (MIN) +2527
JOHN GIBBONS (TOR) +3040
SCOTT SERVAIS (SEA) +3040
JEFF BANISTER (TEX) +3142
ANDY GREEN (SD) +3454
A.J. HINCH (HOU) +3556
DUSTY BAKER (WAS) +3762
JOE GIRARDI (NYY) +4000
DON MATTINGLY (MIA)
DAVE ROBERTS (LAD) +5000
TERRY COLLINS (NYM) +5000
NED YOST (KC) +6000
JOE MADDON (CHC) +9000
BRUCE BOCHY (SF) +9000
MIKE MATHENY (STL) +9000
I would be stunned if John Hart and Bobby Cox decided to pull the rip cord on Fredi Gonzalez's coaching reign in Atlanta. This organization is loyal to their managers, and they fully understand that this is a full scale rebuild. The story will turn different once 2017 hits, however even if this team has the worst record in the big leagues this campaign- I say the Braves head to Sun Trust Stadium as the team's field general again next season.

I would be stunned if John Hart and Bobby Cox decided to pull the rip cord on Fredi Gonzalez’s coaching reign in Atlanta. This organization is loyal to their managers, and they fully understand that this is a full scale rebuild. The story will turn different once 2017 hits, however even if this team has the worst record in the big leagues this campaign – I say the Braves head to Sun Trust Stadium as the team’s field general again next season.

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of bbba.work and their other members***

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A big thanks goes out to our featured writer Hunter Stokes for preparing today’s post.

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Posted on March 30, 2016, in MLB Reports and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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