Odds To Win The 2016 AL MVP In The MLB: Best And Worst Bets

Miguel Cabrera won this award back in 2012 and 2013 - and is fully healthy this upcoming campaign, on a club that is much improved and will be in contention for a playoff spot all year. His +700 odd is a great value bet.

Miguel Cabrera won this award back in 2012 and 2013 – and is fully healthy this upcoming campaign, on a club that is much improved and will be in contention for a playoff spot all year. His +700 odd is a great value bet.  We are picking the man to win the American League MVP this year.  Mike Trout will likely finish 2nd again, and that is based solely on his team probably not vying for a playoff position this year in my view.  Trout should still win the AP Player of the Year and Sporting News player of the year as well..

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) 

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There is no doubt in the world that Mike Trout is the best overall player in the American League, and he is still the best player in the Majors (at least for now – until Bryce Harper has a better 2016 than him again in 2015), but his team is going to make it tough for him to win the MVP over the next few years.

The 2014 winner, and 3 time runner-up in 2012, 2013 and 2015 has to be wondering what his franchise is doing wasting his talent – by surrounding a mediocre supporting cast?

Having said this, the +175 odd is still about where it should be.  If the Angels are in the race down the stretch, and he has better number than the field, Trout will take his 2nd trophy this season.

Honestly the odd that surprised me the most was the Manny Machado odd at +500.  I am not questioning his talent, or the fact he should be a top 5 player for years in the AL;  I am questioning the website for having the O’s ranked 14th out of 15 AL Clubs!

It is the tale of two tapes. Chris Davis should not be 7x more the long shot than Manny Machado to win the AL MVP. As such I have Davis as one of the best bets here on this list, and as one of the worst. For the record, bet365.com has pegged the O's for about 78 wins on the year, and have given them the 14th odd on the board in the Junior Circuit to win the pennant. Machado's +500 odd is bad for this reason.

It is the tale of two tapes. Chris Davis should not be 7x more the long shot than Manny Machado to win the AL MVP. As such I have Davis as one of the best bets here on this list, and as one of the worst. For the record, bet365.com has pegged the O’s for about 78 wins on the year, and have given them the 14th odd on the board in the Junior Circuit to win the pennant. Machado’s +500 odd is bad for this reason.

By them doing this, they are not paying enough value for Machado to win this thing.  The Orioles Third Baseman could put up world-class numbers, kind of like Chris Davis did last year – and not sniff for the chance to win the MVP.

That is not even the worst odd on the board though.  I find it highly erroneous to have Lorenzo Cain as the 7th favorite to win this Award.  He is a good player, but I highly doubt he will put up 25 HRs – or knock in 100 RBI.  Totals you will definitely need to win an MVP.

Mookie Betts is a budding young superstar, and the Red Sox will be a much improved club, yet I am not sure Betts will put up enough power numbers to take home this MVP.

On a side note, I asked this website if they would give me an odd for Hanley Ramirez to win this Award, and they declined to add him to the list.  Had he garnered a +5000 odd, I would have gladly thrown down.  I think Han Ram is going to have a bounce back season.

I also take issue with having Justin Upton even on this list.  I mean where is J.D. Martinez if this is the case?  Upton may be the 3rd best player on his own squad only.  Stay away from this streaky player.

Speaking of the Tigers.  I love Miguel Cabrera being listed at +700.  The 2012 and 2013 winner is healthy for the 1st time in a few seasons, and will look to add to his hardware in 2016.

The ‘Motown Boys’ should be competitive for him to warrant votes.  I have to think Miggy can post a .325/.440/.525 Slash Line with 25 HRs and well over 100 RBI.

Cabrera has won 4 of the last 5 American League Batting Titles, and should see some of his power return in 2016.

If his 1st 99 games were any indication, Carlos Correa will receive some serious consideration for MVP, if he bashes out 35 – 40 HRs as a Shortstop on a 1st place club.  I fully expect the Astros to win the AL West.

If Correa adds 20 – 30 Stolen Bases, has a nice Batting Average, and can move his OPS to around .900 – than this +1400 mark is a solid wager.

I also love Chris Davis at +3500.  This guy is capable of clubbing 40 – 50 HRs, and if the Orioles make the playoffs for any reason, and he drives in 110 – 120 RBI to go along with a decent BA, this guy should be in the running for an MVP.

At the bottom of the pole are Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano at +4000.  I think Cano would have a better shot to win the Award (even though Cruz finished 3rd in 2015) since his Batting Average and OPS will probably be higher.

In Cano’s last 70 Games Played in 2015, he held a 3 Slash line of .331/.387/.540 with 15 HRs and 49 RBI.  If he can hit from .310 to .325 – with nearly 30 HRs and 100 RBI – and the M’s make a playoff spot, Cano would be a great wager.

I also added Adrian Beltre to the bad odds list.  I love the guy. and he is total gamer, but I just don’t think he will remain healthy enough to play more than about 125 Games in 2016.

Beltre just doesn’t walk enough either (even though he has a .358 OBP for Texas over the last 5 years), it will be tough for him to compete with the other guys here.

Besides Trout, the odds for Jose Bautista, Jose Abreu, Jose Altuve, Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion were all right on the money.  Not worth a bet for value, but good enough to not be put on a bad odd list.

My pick to win the 2016 AL MVP is Miguel Cabrera.

Lorenzo Cain is a nice player, but to list him as the 7th favorite to win this award, while he has never hit 20 HRs in a season is ridiculous. Stay away from picking him, Oh. Yeah.. Bet365 also has an over/under for KC at 84.5 wins, so how do they think Cain will win an MVP if the team wins just that many?

Lorenzo Cain is a nice player, but to list him as the 7th favorite to win this award, while he has never hit 20 HRs in a season is ridiculous! Stay away from picking him, Oh. Yeah.. Bet365 also has an over/under for KC at 84.5 wins on the year, so how do they think Cain will win an MVP if the team wins just that many?

ODDS TO WIN THE 2016 AL MVP

Best Bets Odds Value = Blue Bold

Worst Bets Odds Value = Red Bold

Mike Trout, LAA +175

Josh Donaldson , TOR +400

Manny Machado, BAL +500 (4)

Miguel Cabrera, DET +700 (1)

Carlos Correa, HOU +1400 (2)

Mookie Betts would probably have to win the AL Batting Title, and lead the league in runs and hits - with Boston winning the AL East to win the Award. He should not have the same odd as Carlos Correa, - who has a better power profile, and the Astros are a more prohibitive favorite.

Mookie Betts would probably have to win the AL Batting Title, and lead the league in runs and hits – with Boston winning the AL East to win the Award. He should not have the same odd as Carlos Correa, – who has a better power profile, and the Astros are a more prohibitive favorite.

Mookie Betts, BOS +1400 (3)

Lorenzo Cain, KC +2000 (1)

Jose Altuve, HOU +2000

Jose Bautista, TOR +2000

Jose Abreu, CWS +3000

Chris Davis, BAL +3500 (3)

Justin Upton, DET +3500 (2)

Adrian Beltre, TEX +3500 (5)

Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz will both have to play key roles if the Mariners make the playoffs. While I love the odd, Nelson Cruz has put up back to back 40 HR seasons and failed to crack the top 5 in MVP Voting. That also included the O's winning the AL East in 2014 when he was there. Cano has a better shot to win the Award based on decent Batting Averages and OBP put up..

Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz will both have to play key roles if the Mariners make the playoffs. While I love the odd, Nelson Cruz has put up back to back 40 HR seasons – with a career high BA in 2015 at .302 –  and failed to crack the top 5 in MVP Voting. That also included the O’s winning the AL East in 2014 when he was there. Still not a bad odd at 40/1 for Cruz.   Cano has a better shot to win the Award based on decent Batting Averages and OBP put up. Hence the 1 spot ranking higher.

Nelson Cruz. SEA +4000 (5)

Robinson Cano, SEA +4000 (4)

Edwin Encarnacion, TOR +4000

Odds are courtesy of bet365.com

Justin Upton at +3500 is not a very good odd at all to win the MVP. There is nothing wrong with .280/.350/.475 - with 25 HRs and 80 - 90 RBI, but those are not reflective of an MVP caliber season. He will also be knocked out of the running by Cabrera eating up votes on him as a fellow Tiger.

Justin Upton at +3500 is not a very good odd at all to win the MVP. There is nothing wrong with .280/.350/.475 – with 25 HRs and 80 – 90 RBI, but those are not reflective of an MVP caliber season. He will also be knocked out of the running by Cabrera eating up votes on him as a fellow Tiger.

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of bbba.work and their other members***

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A big thanks goes out to our featured writer Hunter Stokes for preparing today’s post.

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About hunterstokes21

I Played NCAA Baseball at Liberty University in the 90's with Sid Bream's kid Sheldon. Once Hit a Home Run by hitting a hot air balloon that was coming over 2nd base (It was agreed that if a balloon was hit before game by the umpires and coaches - even though they were setting up in LF/CF Bleachers). I believe in the "Church Of Baseball". Come in for worship anytime.

Posted on March 23, 2016, in Awards, Gambling 101 and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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