Odds To Win The 2016 NL Cy Young In The MLB: Best And Worst Bets

Max Scherzer threw 2 no-hitters in 2015, and carried no - no's into the late innings on a few other occasions. The man set highs in Strikeouts, Innings Pitched, ERA, WHIP and BB per 9 innings. On a club that will win 90+ games, I believe Scherzer will mop up the NL East all season. I am calling for the guy to win his 1st Cy Young in the National League - after winning the AL honor in 2013.

Max Scherzer threw 2 no-hitters in 2015, and carried no – no’s into the late innings on a few other occasions. The man set highs in Strikeouts, Innings Pitched, ERA, WHIP and BB per 9 innings. On a club that will win 90+ games, I believe Scherzer will mop up the NL East all season. I am calling for the guy to win his 1st Cy Young in the National League – after winning the AL honor in 2013.

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) 

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Clayton Kershaw finally didn’t win a NL CY Young Award last season – and it took historical seasons by Jake Arrieta and Zack Greinke to usurp him of the throne.

The Dodgers chucker still fanned over 300 batters (301) for the 1st time in over a decade, was 16 – 7 – while leading the League in CG/SHO/IP/SO/SO per 9 IP – with still fashioning a ridiculous WHIP of 0.881.

Kershaw finished 3rd in the races, and now has 5 straight campaigns of top 3 finishes.  His +125 odd to win again is about par for the course per this odd, however – just like the American League, I am going to go for the value play more on this list than the favorite.

Last year’s winner (Arrieta) is next on the faves with a mark of +400.  I absolutely hate this odd, and for one – think it will be an impossible feat to do what he did all over again.  Based on the Cubs offense he won’t need to either.

I see Arrieta still putting forth a great season, with a top 15 Cy Young Vote, but have to call his odd of +400 value the 2nd worst on the board.

There is no doubt that Kershaw should be the favorite here - winning 3 straight NL CY Young's from 2013 - 2015 - and still finishing 3rd in last year's vote, although I can't get behind the value. I am calling the odd as fair value, so I am not saying it is a bad odd, just not picking him at that mark.

There is no doubt that Kershaw should be the favorite here – winning 3 straight NL CY Young’s from 2013 – 2015 – and still finishing 3rd in last year’s vote, although I can’t get behind the value. I am calling the odd as fair value, so I am not saying it is a bad odd, just not picking him at that mark.

4 Horsemen Maneuver

I love the Mets Starting Staff – however because they have 4 guys who could act as aces on other clubs, each one of them will draw votes away from another, and I also foresee Innings issues.  Add in a World Series visit to compile year over year frames, and I am steering clear of all New York throwers for this Award.

This is not in any way to demean what Matt Harvey. Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard will do in 2016 – as I believe the Mets are still poised to win the NL East.  I just think other #1’s in the league are all going to carry more of a workload.

The New York Mets and Extending Young Pitcher Contracts

The Mets great young pitching threw more innings in 2016 than they have ever logged in their careers. Syndergaard will not likely throw enough innings to win the Cy Young Award either. Harvey could challenge, but I am not convinced that he should be favored over Scherzer, Bumgarner and Greinke on this list. I did not put DeGrom on the bad odd list – as I believe his +1600 mark is perfectly reflective of where he should be at.

My idea to take the same amount of money – and bet each of Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, Madison Bumgarner and Stephen Strasburg to win this Award.  It is almost like Kershaw vs the rest of the field – minus the Mets and the Cubs here.

Greinke had an incredible 2015 campaign – and has run with the move out west since his days with the Brewers and Royals.  The AL 2009 winner has unbelievable command, and with his move to Arizona, he could really make his mark with the team.  At +1600 and tied for 7th in the NL Ranking, it is a great wager.

Scherzer was pretty much as dominant like Arrieta and Greinke were – say for about 10 starts in the July to August area. The man threw 2 no hitters and took two other games past the 7th inning.

The former Tigers and D’Backs Starter asserted himself as a workhorse in 2015 – lugging a career high in IP (228.2). The former 2013 AL Cy Young Award winner is 53 – 20 with a sub 3.00 ERA since the start of 2013.

Scherzer featured career bests in WHIP (0.918) and BB per 9 IP (1.3), SO (276) – and ERA at 2.79.  His numbers all trended better in the Senior Circuit.  I will go on a limb and say this guy actually wins the NL Cy Young Award this year.

Stephen Strasburg had a brutal start to the 2015 season – that was marred by injury, but he is in a contract year – and I fully expect to see his best work ever as a Pitcher.  The former #1 overall pick had an ERA of

With Greinke now in Arizona, I think the Scherzer/Strasburg 1 – 2 combination will be the best duo in the Majors this campaign.

Madison Bumgarner is the best playoff pitcher in the last 25 years, and maybe part of that success should be attributed to Bruce Bochy leaving some bullets in the chamber after the regular season has ended.

The Giants remarkably consistent Relief Core is coming back yet once again – however I think Mad Bum may find himself logging more Innings this coming season.

With as many as 7 teams for the upper clubs in the NL, I don’t believe any squad will have the luxury of resting any of its aces in August and September.

One of the years Bumgarner may put forth one of his playoff type of runs in  Sept/Oct – that would nail down a playoff spot for the San Fran organization.  At +1400, I would take that total all day with the moxy this guy has.

Jose Fernandez is listed to high as a favorite – for a pitcher that may be capped at between 180 – 200 IP.  That will not get it done versus the rest of the field here, and I am going to have to call it the 2nd worst odd to Arrieta’s number.

Jon Lester sitting at +2500, with an inflamed elbow, and mid 3 ERA will not win a Cy Young.  I love the guy.  Chicago needs him for the playoffs, but I think he will also not worry about personal statistics – and therefore be carrying a ton of big leads versus the opponents this year.

I would not be surprised if Lester or Arrieta lead the Majors in Pitching wins this season – and especially with that offense.

Adam Wainwright throwing for a full season, coupled with his disdain for being dropped in fantasy rankings, may be enough incentive for the two-time runner up, and 2 other 3rd place finishes put forth in his last 5 full years toeing the bump – to win his 1st Award.

Jose Fernandez will still have an innings limit on his arm in 2016 - so if the team wishes to participate in pennant baseball, the club

Jose Fernandez will still have an innings limit on his arm in 2016 – so if the team wishes to participate in pennant baseball, the squad will stagger his starts and hope the rest of the rotation can help the club stay in the race.  This odd is not very wise at all considering his opposition will all throw way more Innings than he will in the forthcoming campaign.  I expect Fernandez may win a Cy Young in his career, it will just not be in 2016.  Stay away from this wager, as we have it as the worst odd.

ODDS TO WIN THE NL CY YOUNG

Best Bets Odds Value = Blue Bold

Worst Bets Odds Value = Red Bold

Clayton Kershaw. LAD +125

Jake Arrieta, CHC +400 (2)

Matt Harvey,  NYM +1000 (5)

Max Scherzer,  WSH +1400 (1)

Madison Bumgarner, SF +1400 (4)

Jose Fernandez, MIA +1400 (1)

Adam Wainwright, STL +1600 (5)

Zack Greinke, ARI +1600 (2)

Jacob deGrom, NYM +1600

Stephen Strasburg, WSH +1600 (3)

Jon Lester, CHC +2500 (4)

Noah Syndergaard, NYM +2500 (3)

Gerrit Cole, PIT +2500

Johnny Cueto, SF +5000

Michael Wacha, STL +5000

Arrieta was so filthy dominant in the last 20 starts (about a 1 ERA) that he was a great story to wrestle the 2015 Cy Young Award away from Greinke. I think there will be a small let down. Having said this, I would give him the best odds to have the most victories in the league in 2016.

Arrieta was so filthy dominant in the last 20 starts (about a 1 ERA) that he was a great story to wrestle the 2015 Cy Young Award away from Greinke. I think there will be a small let down. Having said this, I would give him the best odds to have the most victories in the league in 2016..  Much like his teammate Lester, I am thinking the Cubbies leads will be so great in games, that peripheral stats from the starters of the team will inch up ever so slightly with carrying big leads all of the time – and relaxing just a smidge.

Odds are courtesy of bet365.com

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of bbba.work and their other members***

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A big thanks goes out to our featured writer Hunter Stokes for preparing today’s post.

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About hunterstokes21

I Played NCAA Baseball at Liberty University in the 90's with Sid Bream's kid Sheldon. Once Hit a Home Run by hitting a hot air balloon that was coming over 2nd base (It was agreed that if a balloon was hit before game by the umpires and coaches - even though they were setting up in LF/CF Bleachers). I believe in the "Church Of Baseball". Come in for worship anytime.

Posted on March 22, 2016, in Gambling 101, MLB Reports and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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