Odds To Win The 2016 AL Cy Young In The MLB: Best And Worst Bets

Only a few missed starts over the last several years (in April and March) have stopped the lanky LHP from winning a Cy Young Award thus far. His favorite status is the proper odd - and he should be the #1 guy to win the Award. I hate betting on the favorite though, and in fact, will skip the 3 of the last 4 Cy Young winners on the list - by bypassing them for wagering.

Only a few missed starts over the last several years (in April and March) have stopped the lanky LHP from winning a Cy Young Award thus far. His favorite status is the proper odd – and he should be the #1 guy to win the Award. I hate betting on the favorite though, and in fact, will skip the 3 of the last 4 Cy Young winners on the list – by bypassing them for wagering.

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) 

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When gambling establishments put forth their player specials as this it is rarely ever worth it to go for the top 2 picks to win (value – wise).

This doesn’t mean the favorite still won’t win.

Take the ‘Junior Circuit’ Cy Young race for instance.  Chris Sale is listed as +300. whereas David Price and Corey Kluber are next with +350.  2015’s winner Dallas Keuchel is 4th at +700 – as is Felix Hernandez.

These five players represent three of the last 5 winners. Typically these guys would all be a great throw down for the Award again in 2016.

My pick for the Award would actually be Sale, who is always a ‘dead arm’ period per spring away from taking the honors as the best chucker in the American League.

I am not going to wager on any of those guys though.

Sonny Gray was running an ERA of near 2 for the 1st half - and had many of his leads blown by the Bullpen. The 25 Year Old finished 3rd in the AL Cy Young Voting compiled a 14 - 7 record, with a 2,73 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in his 31 Game Starts - spanning over 208 Innings thrown in 2015.

Sonny Gray was running an ERA of near 2 for the 1st half – and had many of his leads blown by the Bullpen. The 25 Year Old finished 3rd in the AL Cy Young Voting compiled a 14 – 7 record, with a 2,73 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in his 31 Game Starts – spanning over 208 Innings thrown in 2015.  Even on a club that may finish last in the AL, this guy is full value at +1400, and our best bet on the board.

Out of the 15 guys listed below, my best and favorite odd is Sonny Gray at +1400 – and Marcus Stroman at +3000. Stroman has that kind of pizzazz added to his brilliant last month of the year.  Nothing should scare him now, and he may have arrived as a premiere pitcher.

If you only want to risk a few bucks I even like Justin Verlander at +5000.  He won the Award in 2011 and finished 2nd in 2012.  His 2nd half of 2015 says he may have a few great years left in his right arm.

The worst picks on the list are Michael Pineda (+5000) and Masahiro Tanaka (+6000) – as both Yankee Starters are going to have a tough time throwing 30+ Game Starts that are needed to be in the hunt here.

I do also like Chris Archer at +1200 – however since I am not buying the Rays to sniff anywhere near the postseason, I believe this may be a deciding factor.

Also not a fan of Carlos Carrasco at +1400 either.  The guy had struggled as a Starter for years before finally clutching up the last 2 seasons.

Having said that, the Tribe’s #2 barely averaged over 6 innings pitched per start last season. Kluber will also takes votes away from him.

Felix Hernandez is always in the running, however one has to wonder whether or not his Innings piled up on him the last several years will finally catch up to him at some point.

In the last 2 years he has been prone to that 1 or 2 blowup games that have taken him out of the running.

It is important to note that no relievers are listed on here, and I would think that Craig Kimbrel may have a chance for a phenomenal season as the Red Sox lock-down man.

If you could guarantee me that either Masahiro Tanaka or Michael Pineda could start 32 or 33 Games - I would gladly bet them at +6000 and +5000 respectively. I hardly think it is plausible for either to reach 30 Game Starts, and maybe 20 - 25 is more realistic.

If you could guarantee me that either Masahiro Tanaka or Michael Pineda could start 32 or 33 Games – I would gladly bet them at +6000 and +5000 respectively. I hardly think it is plausible for either to reach 30 Game Starts, and maybe 20 – 25 is more realistic.

ODDS TO WIN THE AL CY YOUNG

Best Bets Odds Value = Blue Bold

Worst Bets Odds Value = Red Bold

Chris Sale, CWS +300

Corey Kluber, CLE +350 #5

I just don’t see him in the same stratosphere as Price, who is annually in this mix.

David Price, BOS +350

Dallas Keuchel, HOU +700

Felix Hernandez, SEA +700

Chris Archer. TB +1200 #5

Sonny Gray, OAK +1400 #1

Carrasco has come along way as a starter, and a #2 slotting for the Tribe is gladly welcomed by the fanbase, but to have him rated so high on this list is not being realistic based on past production.

Carrasco has come along way as a starter, and a #2 slotting for the Tribe is gladly welcomed by the fanbase, but to have him rated so high on this list is not being realistic based on past production.  Worst odd on the board

Carlos Carrasco, CLE +1400 #1

Garrett Richards, LAA +3000 #4

Cole Hamels, TEX +3000

Marcus Stroman, TOR +3000 #2

Michael Pineda, NYY +5000 #2

Justin Verlander, DET +5000 #3

Masahiro Tanaka, NYY +6000 #3

Yordano Ventura, KC +7000 #4

Not buying Ventura sniffing anywhere near this race.

Odds are courtesy of bet365.com

ustin Verlander was once the best pitcher in the American League over the last 5 years. Verlander was 137 - 77 (.640) with a 3.41 ERA in the 1st 9 years of his career. The 2011 AL Cy Young Winner and 2012 Cy Young runner up is signed with the club until at least 2019, and it could be 2020 with a Vesting Option. Verlander had thrown over 200+ IP each year since 2007. The Detroit Tigers are certainly lucky the San Diego Padres took Matt Bush with the 1st overall pick - as JVerlander has been the best pitcher in the American League over the last 5 years. Verlander is 137 - 77 (.640) with a 3.41 ERA in the 1st 9 years of his career. The 2011 AL Cy Young Winner and 2012 Cy Young runner up is signed with the club until at least 2019, and it could be 2020 with a Vesting Option. Verlander has thrown over 200+ IP each year since 2007. The 30 Year old has added a 7 - 5 record in 15 Career Post Season Games and a 3.28 ERA - among 0 - 3 with a 7.20 in 3 World Series Starts

Justin Verlander was once the best pitcher in the American League over a 6 years span of 2007 – 2012. He was 137 – 77 (.640) with a 3.41 ERA in the 1st 9 years of his career. The 2011 AL Cy Young Winner and 2012 Cy Young runner up struggled for 2013 and 2014 – before finding his form over his last 15 starts in 2015 – registering a 2.80 ERA – with a great 1.000 WHIP in the 2nd half. Verlander had thrown over 200+ IP each year since 2007 – until last campaign saw DL stints rob him of Game Starts to begin the year.  I expect him to be back in that range again this campaign.  He may not ever return to the pitcher he once was, but if he puts up his  2015 – post ALL – Star totals for the whole 2016 season, his odd is worth the gamble – and a few dollars gambled. .

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of bbba.work and their other members***

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A big thanks goes out to our featured writer Hunter Stokes for preparing today’s post.

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About hunterstokes21

I Played NCAA Baseball at Liberty University in the 90's with Sid Bream's kid Sheldon. Once Hit a Home Run by hitting a hot air balloon that was coming over 2nd base (It was agreed that if a balloon was hit before game by the umpires and coaches - even though they were setting up in LF/CF Bleachers). I believe in the "Church Of Baseball". Come in for worship anytime.

Posted on March 22, 2016, in Gambling 101 and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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