Odds To Win The 2016 MLB World Series
The Cardinals continued their great play in the MLB since the turn of the millennium – with an MLB best 100 wins in 2015. The organization has transitioned to the next core of a young nucleus, while still holding on to a couple of capable veterans. Considering they have plenty of depth, and lots of payroll flexibility coming forth, the franchise could orchestrate a blockbuster trade soon. While I would favor Chicago over them slightly for the NL Central, the RedBirds, Mets, Dodgers Tigers and Mariners have the best value, while the Angels, Giants, Padres, Red Sox and D’Backs have the worst on the board this week.
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I was all set to pounce on my 1st American League bet for the Fall Classic in 2016 earlier this week – when the O’s were at +5000, and presumably bringing both Dexter Fowler and Yovani Gallardo into the stable.
With Fowler opting back to Chicago, the odd also dropped to +4500 in the meantime (also following the Gallardo wait time for the physical fiasco), and the value is no longer there.
Baltimore is a low 80 wins team in my view, and will not have enough for the postseason. Fowler would have added a few W’s for sure.
Of course with the chaos that has ensued, the Cubs have gone from +700 to +650 prohibitive best odd. There is no doubt in my mind they should be the consensus favorite.
One of these years the #1 seed will capitalize and win. I am still not plunking down cabbage at that clip though.
If I were to do my year end picks right now, I would still have Chicago ending their World Series 108 seasons drought – but I can’t place them as twice the favorite as the St. Louis Cardinals.
Still not sold on the Cubs Bullpen either, and I think Jon Lester can be had in the postseason. The Mets also line up favorably versus Chicago based on pitching matchups. New York has the better odds to wager with.
I am currently writing a faceoff piece between the Cubbies and Cards that I will post over the weekend. The difference is not a whopping 8 or 10 games like FanGraphs and PECOTA say. St. Louis should still be in the mid 90’s for victories by years end.
I have them as one of my best bets again this week.
New York Yankees have been taken off the best odds list with their injury to Brett Gardner. It is absolutely paramount that he and Jacoby Ellsbury set the table this campaign – and stay healthy.
All of the incoming help with Starlin Castro, and internal improvement from Didi Gregorius will be for not.
Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran and Alex Rodriguez also will not hit a combined 79 dongs this year like in 2015. The club is also substantially thinner in the Starting Rotation.
They are a 85 win club as presently constituted, which should have them in the race for a Wild Card, but it is not worth betting at the +1600 odd.
The odddsmakers finally dropped the Texas Rangers and Pittsburgh Pirates from their +1300 and +1500 marks respectively. Perhaps no one has had a worse offseason than the Angels and Rangers. If I were a fan of those teams, I would be screaming at management to spend money.
With Josh Hamilton hurt already (surprise there right), the club will need Joey Gallo to potentially step in at LF.
The Angels are happy to enter the season with what they have – and I am afraid it will not be enough. They have dropped from +2200 to +2500 in recent weeks, and with good cause.
Oakland and Seattle are decisively better than they were in 2016 – as are the Astros. Los Angeles and Texas have their work cut out for them to even duplicate their 85 win effort in 2015 – with Mike Trout and Albert Pujols both cracking 40+ HRs – and Kole Calhoun bashing 26 HRs.
The Halos did try to improve their situation bey0nd the grass – in a trade effort to land Michael Saunders, and offering Austin Jackson $5 – 6 MIL for one year – only to have both fall through.
I am thinking they should make and effort to reel in Ian Desmond, and flip Yunel Escobar over to Second Base. Arte Moreno and the brass have to realize they need to spend the money – otherwise it will cost them mightily in the standings.
NO one should benefit more on the parity of the AL than the Boston Red Sox. They are coming off a 78 win season, and despite adding Craig Kimbrel and David Price, I don’t see them topping 90 wins. They also shouldn’t be tied with the Jays for the top odd. Really Kansas City/Houston should be the co- American League favorite with the Jays in 3rd – and Red Sox should be somewhere near +1300 to +1500 – and just slightly ahead of the Yankees mark.
Finally, I am coming around on the Mariners for their +2500 odd.
Everyone’s sexy pick to win it all last season, they should count on a better offensive lineup with the additions of Adam Lind, Chris Iannetta trumping the former position players of Logan Morrison – and brutal tandem Catching of Jesus Sucre and Mike Zunino.
Thrown in a component of contact hitting/speed at the top and bottom of the lineup with Nori Aoki and Leonys Martin respectively – and this club could surprise in 2016.
Just like my thought process with the Angels, the Mariners could also sign Ian Desmond (or trade for an upgrade at SS or CF midway through the year – and really enhance their chances. )
As long as Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager do what they do, this team could be scary. Their odd is worthy of a few sheckels bet.
Odds To Win 2016 World Championship
Blue – Good Value
Red – Bad Value
Chicago Cubs +650
SF Giants +900
Toronto Blue Jays +1000
Boston Red Sox +1000
NY Mets +1100
Washington Nationals +1100
KC Royals +1200
St. Louis Cards +1300
Houston Astros +1300
Arizona Diamondbacks +1500
LA Dodgers +1500
Pittsburgh Pirates +1600
Texas Rangers +1600
NY Yankees +1600
LA Angels +2500
Detroit Tigers +2500
Cleveland Indians +2500
Seattle Mariners +2500
Miami Marlins +3000
Chicago White Sox +3300
Minnesota Twins +4000
Baltimore Orioles +4500
TB Rays +5000
Oakland A’s +6600
SD Padres +7500
Milwaukee Brewers +10000
Cincinnati Reds +12500
Atlanta Braves +17500
Colorado Rockies +20000
Philadelphia Phillies +35000
Odds courtesy of bet365.com
*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their other partners.***
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Posted on February 26, 2016, in Gambling 101 and tagged al central, AL East, AL West, albert pujols, alex rodriguez, All 30 MLB Teams, American league, arizona diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, austin jackson, baltimore orioles, boston red sox, carlos beltran, chicago cubs, Chicago White Sox, chris iannetta, cincinnati reds, cleveland indians, colorado rockies, craig kimbrel, david price, Detroit Tigers, Dexter Fowler, didi gregorius, Fan Graphs, houston astros, ian desmond, jacoby ellsbury, Jesus Sucre, Joey Gallo, jon lester, josh hamilton, kansas city royals, Kole Calhoun, Kyle Seager, la angels, la dodgers, leonys martin, mark teixeira, miami marlins, Michael Saunders, Mike Trout, mike zunino, milwaukee brewers, Minnesota Twins, national league, new york mets, new york yankees, NL Central, NL east, nl west, nori aoki, oakland athletics, PECOTA, philadelphia phillies, pittsburgh pirates, robinson cano, san diego padres, san francisco giants, seattle mariners, st louis cardinals, starlin castro, tampa bay rays, texas rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, washington nationals, yovani gallardo, yunel escobar. Bookmark the permalink. 1 Comment.
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