Forget Prospects When Your Window Is Open To Win With Good (To ALL – Star) MLB Players Available!

I am sick and tired of hearing about Draft Picks being coveted by clubs, and in particular with the picks 11 - 30th having to be given up as compensation for signing a guy who was extended a Qualifying Offer. Prospects turn into Suspects in a real hurry. Only 4 or 5 out of the picks 11 - 30 contribute significantly within 4 years. Meaning if your roster is poised now, go ahead and burn your pick by signing proven players that can help your squad right now!

I am sick and tired of hearing about Draft Picks being coveted by clubs, and in particular with the picks 11 – 30th having to be given up as compensation for signing a guy who was extended a Qualifying Offer. Prospects turn into Suspects in a real hurry. Only 4 or 5 out of the picks 11 – 30 contribute significantly within 4 years usually. Meaning if your roster is poised to win right now, go ahead and burn your pick by signing proven players that can help your squad right now!

Hunter Stokes (BBBA Featured Writer) 

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I can’t stand it when I hear that ready to win Major League Clubs are holding off on good Free Agent Signing because of a pending Draft Pick in the coming MLB Amateur Draft being forfeited.

For current organizations like the  Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Angels, Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Mets, Detroit Tigers, KC Royals, Washington Nationals, Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants – all of them project to be contenders in 2016 except the O’s, and the last 6 clubs listed here are acting on that – while the 1st 4 are not.

Let me kind of qualify that.  The Jays did in 2015 – and may do so in 2016.  The real truth will be told by the August.1 Trade Deadline.  Not picking up a top end rotation guy by then will hurt their chances to win in the last few months and definitely in the playoffs.

The Rangers have sat on their hands all winter while the Astros and Mariners have made significant upgrades via trades and signings. The Rangers could have helped their stock by signing a Starting Pitching to aid the rotation in case Yu Darvish doesn't come back 100%. They are still not as flagrant in need of a roster upgrade as the Angels though.

The Rangers have sat on their hands all winter while the Astros and Mariners have made significant upgrades via trades and signings. The Rangers could have helped their stock by signing a Starting Pitching to aid the rotation in case Yu Darvish doesn’t come back 100%. They are still not as flagrant in need of a roster upgrade as the Angels though.

Texas has obvious needs to help the Starting Pitching, and are banking on to many health problems.

The Angels, don’t get me started, but they need to spend some money!

The Pirates, while it is noble they are playing the little engine that could, still may be without enough chuckers to win the NL Central, and may fall victim to having to play in a 4th straight Wild Card one and done, or worst – miss the postseason altogether.

Then there is the Baltimore Orioles – who are rumored to be in the running to sign both Yovani Gallardo and then Dexter Fowler.  This kind of aggression we have not seen from 86 year old Peter Angelos since the late 90’s, but I love it.

Baltimore may have signed Chris Davis for 7 years, but there window is certainly not that long.  Adam Jones has a couple of years left, Matt Wieters is gone for sure after 2016 (as is pick up Mark Trumbo).  Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop are not expensive yet either.

This forthcoming year represents the best chance for the franchise to win for a while, and it looks like the brass is realizing this now.

If they were to add Gallardo and Fowler, than the pitching would be on par with what the 2014 squad had, and the offense would be decisively better than the 2015 team.

It is conceivable with a healthy Wieters, full year from Schoop, and a bit of a bounce back from J.J. Hardy, that these boys could begin raking the ball around the yard.

We are not saying that the Jays, Tigers and Red Sox are not better offenses here, but the O’s are right behind those clubs, and they should trust in Buck Showalter to maximize on his roster of players.

The reluctance on a lot of teams is to covet the Draft Picks, which is utterly absurd when your club may be ready to win right now.

Toronto has Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson only making about $35 MIL this year when they could easily fetch double that if these guys were all Free Agents.

Canada’s only team may have been better served for 2016 in re-signing David Price for $31 MIL per year, instead of doling out that dough to J.A. Happ, Drew Storen and Marco Estrada all combined.  It is a 3 – 1 swap that helps depth, but maybe not for quality.

The Blue Jays did not wish to pay David Price his $30 MIL annual average contract even though he stated his preference was in Toronto. The Jays signed J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada and traded for Drew Storen with that money instead. The Jays still could acquire a #1 or #2 throughout the year, but if they don't upgrade the roster with having EE, Joey Bats and Donaldson on awesome valued contracts, then it will be a shame.

The Blue Jays did not wish to pay David Price his $30 MIL annual average contract even though he stated his preference was in Toronto. The Jays signed J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada and traded for Drew Storen with that money instead. The Jays still could acquire a #1 or #2 throughout the year, but if they don’t upgrade the roster with having EE, Joey Bats and Donaldson on awesome valued contracts, then it will be a shame.

The truth of the matter is that Draft picks rarely work out, cost you several million in slotting dollars, and would take 3 – 4 years to reach your club – unless they are exceptional players.

Baltimore realizes that the 14th pick won’t be worth jack if he gets there when Wieters and Jones aren’t there anymore on the squad, and Davis may not be as productive as he is now.

Texas should be thinking the same way with potentially wasting away Adrian Beltre‘s last year on his contract.  Prince Fielder could have an exponential drop in any season (his dad Cecil really fell off his production once he hit his early 30’s).  Shin-soo Choo isn’t getting any younger either.

To be clear here, I am not berating the Jays management for going about it this way.  I am simply stating that if they were to spend on a Free Agent like Fowler right now, it would be an awesome idea as an improvement in LF.

Just for fun go to the 2011 draft right now.  Out of the list of these guys, Gerrit Cole, Jose Fernandez and Sonny Gray are ace pitchers, with Anthony Rendon, Francisco Lindor, Joe Panik, George Springer and Javier Baez all having potential still, but that is only 8 guys out of the to 30 making a difference with a MLB club within 4 years of being drafted.

You can’t even count Cole, Rendon, Lindor and Baez would have been exempt because the top 10 players are protected from a Free Agent who was given a Qualifying Offer, so now we are at 5 of 20 teams have had significant help from a 2011 draft selection.

2012’s 11th – 30th picks has Addison Russell, Corey Seager, Marcus Stroman and Michael Wacha only being significant pieces on their roster heading into 2016.

2013’s 11th – 30th picks have no one who is earth changing their roster for them in 2016.

2014’s 11th – 30th picks are in the same boat as the 2013 class.

It takes time to make an impact all the way back to the draft.  The odds are more in favor of your pick not turning out while the proven MLB’er can help your squad at the big level right now. 

Add in several years of waiting than it is pointless.

Some of the St. Louis Cardinals best work over the last 20 years has been beyond the 1st RD.  if a team’s scouts cant find players past that round they will have a problem anyways.  Draft Picks should never be a stopper for a team going for it now. EVER!

Even if Baltimore were to sign Gallardo and Fowler, and have it blow it against them, they have waited it out long enough it won’t cost them a fortune. It may just cost $65 – 70 MIL for the two combined for 3 and 2 years respectively.

I would gladly take that concept over 5 years of an Ian Kennedy.

Without doing any moves to the roster, the O’s are certain for a 4th or 5th place finish. With these guys in the mix, I peg them for an 86 – 87 win club.  That may be enough.

You think the fans are going to come flocking to Camden Yards if this club is out of contention?  No way.

If the season goes bad from the onset, Wieters, Matusz and Trumbo are all tradeable commodities worth value on the trade market.

I want an owner like Mike Ilitch and Ted Lerner, who are willing to spend any amount of money to win.  I am not saying you have to keep forking out cash like that forever either.  You are doing it while your window is open.  Scaling back can follow going all out.

Guaranteed the Cubs won’t be able to sign all of their world-class talent in 5 – 6 years when they all hit the open market at the same time, yet right now they are locking up help with Jason Heyward and John Lackey, and will probably add more players throughout the season to make their playoff run.

Especially in an era where the MLB is not doing enough to stop tanking.  The Orioles could always gut the franchise years down the road like the Phillies and Braves have done recently.  Or like Houston and the Chicago Cubs did of recent times as well.

I give full credit to the O’s brass here too.  They are potentially doing some late bargain shopping like in 2014, when they swept in to ink Nelson Cruz so late.   Fowler is going to be a great value – and Gallardo should  have garnered more $ on the open market too.

Man I would love to see the Orioles spend to get Yovani Gallardo and Dexter Fowler, while giving up the 1st RD picks (14th and Miami's pick for Wei-Yin Chen). I love the idea of striking with Wieters, Trumbo and Matusz on their last year of their deals, and with Chris Davis and Adam Jones at the pinnacle of their prime. 3 - 4 years for youngsters is too long to wait for the 20% chance you will even have a comparable player to one you sign now anyway.

Man I would love to see the Orioles spend to get Yovani Gallardo and Dexter Fowler, while giving up the 1st RD picks (14th and Miami’s pick for Wei-Yin Chen). I love the idea of striking with Wieters, Trumbo and Matusz on their last year of their deals, and with Chris Davis and Adam Jones at the pinnacle of their prime. 3 – 4 years for youngsters is too long to wait for the 20% chance you will even have a comparable player to one you sign now anyway.

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of bbba.work and their other members***

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A big thanks goes out to our featured writer Hunter Stokes for preparing today’s post.

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About hunterstokes21

I Played NCAA Baseball at Liberty University in the 90's with Sid Bream's kid Sheldon. Once Hit a Home Run by hitting a hot air balloon that was coming over 2nd base (It was agreed that if a balloon was hit before game by the umpires and coaches - even though they were setting up in LF/CF Bleachers). I believe in the "Church Of Baseball". Come in for worship anytime.

Posted on February 12, 2016, in MLB Reports and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. 1 Comment.

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