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The Boston Red Sox might just be on to something. They will be penalized for the 1st year of going over the new $189 MIL limit in 2016, but it is also the last year the CBA may have the percentages.
Currently right now, there is a 17.5% penalty for spending dollars over $189 MIL. The Dodgers and Yankees are the only other teams that are budgeted over the mark in addition to Boston.
On the cusp are the Detroit Tigers, sitting at around $177 MIL – while the Giants and Angels are nearly at $170 MIL. The Cubs are also near the $165 MIL area.
Why not spend like crazy in 2016 – and take advantage of the system as it is presented towards you?
Chicago has that dollar amount even though they are not paying any of their young talented players like Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell, Javier Baez and Jorge Soler that much cash yet, and Anthony Rizzo makes little money in comparison to his real value (Is owed just $25 MIL for the next 3 years, before two straight Team Options come at just $12.5 MIL per 2020 and 2021 year.)
The Yankees and Dodgers are both in the 50% penalty in 2016, and have to consider any acquisition they make at a 50% penalty for dollars spent. I am in the opinion that these clubs have to spend $25 – $35 MIL on players in the open market just to make the playoffs next year.
Detroit is aging rapidly, and as such should really take a run at the title in 2016. Mike Illitch and the brass should realize this is the last chance. How long can Miguel Cabrera play MVP caliber baseball? Perhaps inking Yoenis Cespedes to a deal is not crazy in Motown after all.
The LA Angels are also in dire need of a 3B, some pitching help, and a corner OF to play alongside Mike Trout and Cole Kalhoun. Would Arte Moreno consent for a one year spike?
Don’t tell me Miami wouldn’t listen to a deal that may include Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez and Jorge Soler as part of a package of 5 – 6 players.
The best way to take advantage of this system is to trade for players in the mid year – on the last year of their deals, and then you have to pay for just 1/3rd of their salary.
Below is a list of players that are with teams that may miss the playoffs, making some players available to add salary wise. Right now I am projecting the Angels to miss the postseason, and as such, will make C.J. Wilson and Jered Weaver available on this list.
I also have Seattle outside the playoff bar.
If you want to just read this as possible Trade Deadline players available, than this is another just scenario for these players.
2016 Salaries – 2017 Free Agents
A list of costly players, but in the last year of their contracts, are: C.J. Wilson ($20.5 MIL), Jered Weaver ($20.2 MIL), Matt Wieters ($15.88 MIL), John Danks ($15.8 MIL), Adam LaRoche ($13.0 MIL), Jorge De La Rosa ($12.5 MIL), Aaron Hill, ($12.0 MIL) Martin Prado ($11.0 MIL), James Loney ($9.7 MIL), Erick Aybar ($8.8 MIL), Adam Lind ($8.0 MIL), Joaquin Benoit and Mike Napoli make $7 MIL. All of these guys could be candidates.
The next set of players are guys in the final year of their Arbitration (would only cost through 2016 and are Free Agents in 2017.)
Aroldis Chapman $12.9 MIL
Mark Melancon $10.0 MIL (Pirates may trade him for financial flexibility)
Mark Trumbo $9.1 MIL
Drew Storen $8.8 MIL (wants out of WSH, they have Depth.)
Brandon Moss $7.9 MIL (tradeable because of Roster Depth.)
Josh Reddick $7.0 MIL
Andrew Cashner $7.0 MIL
Among 2016 Free Agents, maybe the above mentioned clubs would spend more on giving the guys a 1 year deal to secure their services.
Candidates for that (1 Year deals)
Doug Fister, Howie Kendrick, Ian Desmond, Denard Span, Dexter Fowler, Pedro Alvarez, Chris Carter, John Jaso and Tyler Clippard fit into this type of deal. Maybe a team would throw them an offer worth $4 – 5 MIL more than what they could get (AAV on a multi-year contract).
Fowler, Kendrick and Desmond are the only players on this list that were given a Qualifying Offer. As such it would cost a 1st RD pick for a team signing them. Seemingly ridiculous for a one year offer – I understand this. I still think if that QO were to be $16 – $18 MIL maybe they would take it.
Those 2 players may be without a contract offer into March. If that were the case as in past years with Ervin Santana, Kendrys Morales and Stephen Drew all signing way into springs after rejecting QO’s, than it would be a facesaver to sign a deal in the neighborhood of the mark.
The Los Angeles Angels are going to be without Albert Pujols to start the year. They have several bad contracts this year, and are paying Josh Hamilton, but how many years of competitive fire do they have.
If they could spend $35 – $40 more Million, maybe they could sign a few of those Free Agents. Fowler or Span would work, and maybe bring in a Doug Fister.
Heck, it was believed they were in the running for Jason Heyward.
They should think about bringing back Howie Kendrick, and a Left Handed bat DH/1B type like John Jaso would be perfect for a one year deal. Maybe even a Chris Carter, who has bashed out 90 HRs over the last 3 years. The Halo’s still need to fill the 3B position.
Maybe they will resign David Freese for a one year deal too.
The San Francisco Giants want to cement their legacy as a dynasty – by winning their 4th title in the decade. Really, they could use another Reliever. Maybe they deal for a Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon or Drew Storen to solidify the late innings.
I wouldn’t put it past the Giants to make a trade for another OF midway through the year. San Fran is only $20 MIL away from the threshold. Maybe they would even resign Tim Lincecum to work out of a swingman role for the Staff.
*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their partners***
A Big thanks goes out to our chief writer Hunter Stokes for preparing today’s feature post.
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